Happy Valley · 2023-11-22 · 13:15
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2023-11-22 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. SAMARKAND, ridden by K H Chan and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1/2, with KILLER INSTINCT second and STURDY RUBY third. The winner led throughout. The 2.7 favourite DURHAM STAR finished 8th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | SAMARKAND Wire to wire CP/TT 1.41.35 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K H Chan · D A Hayes | K H Chan | D A Hayes | 2 | 14.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 4 | KILLER INSTINCT Closed strongly V-/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 4 | 10.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 5 | STURDY RUBY TT M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 7 | 10.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 10 | KYRUS UNICORN Closed strongly B B Avdulla · D J Hall | B Avdulla | D J Hall | 12 | 21.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | PEGASUS GENERAL Closed strongly V K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 11 | 25.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 12 | ASIAN ONE PC-/XB/V2/TT M Chadwick · J Richards | M Chadwick | J Richards | 3 | 10.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 11 | RIGHT HONOURABLE Closed strongly B/XB K De Melo · M Newnham | K De Melo | M Newnham | 9 | 9.9 | 2 |
| 8 | 2 | DURHAM STAR SR/XB Z Purton · D J Whyte | Z Purton | D J Whyte | 5 | 2.7 | 2 |
| 9 | 6 | WIN WIN FIGHTER B L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 8 | 7.2 | 5 |
| 10 | 9 | SUPER ELITE H/XB A Badel · P F Yiu | A Badel | P F Yiu | 1 | 18.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 8 | FORTUNE PRESIDENT K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 10 | 13.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 3 | RUNNING AHEAD CP1/TT- C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 6 | 33.0 | 7 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | DURHAM STAR | 23.0% | 4.34 | 8 |
| 2 | 4 | KILLER INSTINCT | 10.0% | 10.03 | 2 |
| 3 | 6 | WIN WIN FIGHTER | 9.5% | 10.56 | 9 |
| 4 | 10 | KYRUS UNICORN | 8.2% | 12.15 | 4 |
| 5 | 8 | FORTUNE PRESIDENT | 8.2% | 12.23 | 11 |
| 6 | 9 | SUPER ELITE | 7.1% | 14.17 | 10 |
| 7 | 5 | STURDY RUBY | 6.7% | 14.87 | 3 |
| 8 | 12 | ASIAN ONE | 6.6% | 15.11 | 6 |
| 9 | 11 | RIGHT HONOURABLE | 6.1% | 16.45 | 7 |
| 10 | 7 | SAMARKAND | 5.8% | 17.14 | 1 |
| 11 | 3 | RUNNING AHEAD | 4.5% | 21.99 | 12 |
| 12 | 1 | PEGASUS GENERAL | 4.3% | 23.43 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 143
PLACE
4 32
5 26.5
7 38.5
QUINELLA
4,7 627
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 155.5
4,7 203.5
5,7 233
FORECAST
7,4 1,425
TIERCE
7,4,5 12,828
TRIO
4,5,7 2,099
FIRST 4
4,5,7,10 8,990
QUARTET
7,4,5,10 235,708
All pools (2 more)
1ST TREBLE
8/3/4 265
8/3/7 5,854
4TH DOUBLE
3/4 107
3/7 1,422