Happy Valley · 2023-11-29 · 11:15

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1000m Course C+3 9 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2023-11-29 was Class 5 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. HAPPY HORSE, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by K L Man, won by 3/4, with GOODMANSHIP second and FIGHTING STAR third. The 3.1 favourite FIGHTING STAR finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 0.57.60

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	8	HAPPY HORSE H/P1/TT 0.57.60 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · K L Man	Y L Chung	K L Man	3	117 lb	5.3	3/4
2	6	GOODMANSHIP B/TT L Ferraris · D J Whyte	L Ferraris	D J Whyte	4	123 lb	9.6	3/4
3	9	FIGHTING STAR B K Teetan · C H Yip	K Teetan	C H Yip	5	120 lb	3.1	1-3/4
4	3	STRIVE FOR GLORY P/TT Z Purton · W Y So	Z Purton	W Y So	7	129 lb	5.3	2-1/4
5	7	HAPPILY FRIENDS V J McDonald · W Y So	J McDonald	W Y So	6	122 lb	8.0	2-1/4
6	1	GREAT DAYS CP/XB A Hamelin · P C Ng	A Hamelin	P C Ng	1	130 lb	13.0	3
7	4	DASHING GLORY B/TT- M F Poon · Y S Tsui	M F Poon	Y S Tsui	2	126 lb	52.0	3-1/2
8	5	EIGHT TRIGRAMS B/TT C L Chau · Y S Tsui	C L Chau	Y S Tsui	8	123 lb	13.0	3-1/2
9	2	MULTIMORE TT H T Mo · T P Yung	H T Mo	T P Yung	9	127 lb	8.8	4-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24

The model's top pick GOODMANSHIP (22.4%) finished 2nd — the winner HAPPY HORSE was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	6	GOODMANSHIP	22.4%	4.47	2	9.6
2	7	HAPPILY FRIENDS	18.5%	5.42	5	8.0
3	3	STRIVE FOR GLORY	14.5%	6.91	4	5.3
4	8	HAPPY HORSE	14.1%	7.07	1	5.3
5	2	MULTIMORE	12.2%	8.19	9	8.8
6	9	FIGHTING STAR	11.1%	9.04	3	3.1
7	5	EIGHT TRIGRAMS	4.0%	25.04	8	13.0
8	4	DASHING GLORY	2.0%	51.15	7	52.0
9	1	GREAT DAYS	1.3%	75.76	6	13.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 53

PLACE

6 27.5

8 17.5

9 14.5

QUINELLA

6,8 212.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,8 70.5

6,9 46.5

8,9 31

FORECAST

8,6 401

TIERCE

8,6,9 1,090

TRIO

6,8,9 165

FIRST 4

3,6,8,9 176

QUARTET

8,6,9,3 5,368

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Happy Valley 1000m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99