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Happy Valley · 2023-11-29 · 12:15

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 2200m Course C+3 11 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2023-11-29 was Class 4 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. WONDER YEARS, ridden by K De Melo and trained by D J Whyte, won by 3/4, with JUBILATION second and SUPER HONG KONG third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite KYRUS UNICORN finished 11th.

Result

Official · 2.16.17
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 WONDER YEARS Closed strongly B/XB/TT 2.16.17 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K De Melo · D J Whyte 8 15.0 3/4
2 11 JUBILATION Closed strongly V A Badel · W Y So 1 5.2 3/4
3 2 SUPER HONG KONG Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · K L Man 5 31.0 2-3/4
4 9 AI ONE Closed strongly H/TT K Teetan · K H Ting 4 19.0 3-1/4
5 4 FLYING SILVER B-/TT J McDonald · C S Shum 6 7.1 3-1/4
6 3 KASA PAPA TT C L Chau · T P Yung 10 16.0 3-1/2
7 8 VINCY Closed strongly SR/TT L Hewitson · C H Yip 11 19.0 4-3/4
8 1 DARCI JOY B/TT Y L Chung · P F Yiu 2 6.8 5-3/4
9 5 MANAGEMENT FOLKS Closed strongly B Avdulla · D J Hall 7 9.2 7-1/4
10 10 SUNNY BABY Led early M L Yeung · D A Hayes 9 27.0 7-3/4
11 7 KYRUS UNICORN B Z Purton · D J Hall 3 3.0 11-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WONDER YEARS2. JUBILATION+0.75L3. SUPER HONG KONG+2.75L4. AI ONE+3.25L5. FLYING SILVER+3.25L6. KASA PAPA+3.5L7. VINCY+4.75L8. DARCI JOY+5.75L9. MANAGEMENT FOLKS+7.25L10. SUNNY BABY+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick KYRUS UNICORN (27.0%) finished 11th — the winner WONDER YEARS was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 KYRUS UNICORN 27.0% 3.71 11
2 11 JUBILATION 20.5% 4.87 2
3 8 VINCY 9.1% 10.96 7
4 1 DARCI JOY 7.7% 12.92 8
5 9 AI ONE 7.5% 13.27 4
6 3 KASA PAPA 7.0% 14.19 6
7 5 MANAGEMENT FOLKS 6.7% 14.88 9
8 4 FLYING SILVER 6.2% 16.09 5
9 6 WONDER YEARS 3.1% 31.92 1
10 10 SUNNY BABY 3.1% 32.32 10
11 2 SUPER HONG KONG 1.9% 52.38 3
KYRUS UNICORNJUBILATIONVINCYDARCI JOYAI ONEKASA PAPAMANAGEMENT FOLKSFLYING SILVERWONDER YEARS — wonSUNNY BABYSUPER HONG KONG

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 157

PLACE

2 76

6 42.5

11 21.5

QUINELLA

6,11 384

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 487.5

2,11 253.5

6,11 132

FORECAST

6,11 938

TIERCE

6,11,2 21,592

TRIO

2,6,11 3,948

FIRST 4

2,6,9,11 8,853

QUARTET

6,11,2,9 181,179

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

5/6 419

5/11 35