Happy Valley · 2023-11-29 · 13:15
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2023-11-29 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. ACT OF FAITH, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by J Size, won by 1/2, with KOKUSHI MUSOU second and EASY SNIP third. The 2.8 favourite TALENTS SUPREMO finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | ACT OF FAITH B 1.10.28 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 2 | 4.6 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 2 | KOKUSHI MUSOU B-/TT A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 5 | 12.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 8 | EASY SNIP B C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 7 | 32.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 4 | E BROTHER B/TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 12 | 51.0 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 5 | TALENTS SUPREMO TT J McDonald · W K Mo | J McDonald | W K Mo | 1 | 2.8 | 1 |
| 6 | 3 | RUBYLOT CP Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 8 | 5.8 | 1 |
| 7 | 12 | TACTICAL COMMAND M L Yeung · M Newnham | M L Yeung | M Newnham | 3 | 77.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 8 | 11 | FLAMING EAGLE PC/TT K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 4 | 7.7 | 2 |
| 9 | 10 | TIMESTORM B-/XB-/TT- L Ferraris · D J Hall | L Ferraris | D J Hall | 10 | 13.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 10 | 7 | KING INVINCIBLE TT A Atzeni · F C Lor | A Atzeni | F C Lor | 6 | 17.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 11 | 6 | GALLANT GOODY B1 M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 11 | 71.0 | 4 |
| 12 | 9 | HEARTY WISH B/SR/TT Y L Chung · D J Whyte | Y L Chung | D J Whyte | 9 | 20.0 | 5-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | TALENTS SUPREMO | 30.0% | 3.34 | 5 |
| 2 | 3 | RUBYLOT | 14.9% | 6.70 | 6 |
| 3 | 1 | ACT OF FAITH | 11.5% | 8.67 | 1 |
| 4 | 11 | FLAMING EAGLE | 9.5% | 10.52 | 8 |
| 5 | 7 | KING INVINCIBLE | 8.1% | 12.35 | 10 |
| 6 | 2 | KOKUSHI MUSOU | 7.3% | 13.71 | 2 |
| 7 | 9 | HEARTY WISH | 5.1% | 19.64 | 12 |
| 8 | 10 | TIMESTORM | 4.7% | 21.25 | 9 |
| 9 | 8 | EASY SNIP | 4.4% | 22.79 | 3 |
| 10 | 4 | E BROTHER | 3.5% | 28.64 | 4 |
| 11 | 12 | TACTICAL COMMAND | 0.6% | 174.58 | 7 |
| 12 | 6 | GALLANT GOODY | 0.4% | 235.16 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 46
PLACE
1 16.5
2 32
8 56
QUINELLA
1,2 308.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 101.5
1,8 167
2,8 334
FORECAST
1,2 542
TIERCE
1,2,8 9,271
TRIO
1,2,8 2,146
FIRST 4
1,2,4,8 11,024
QUARTET
1,2,8,4 188,192
All pools (2 more)
1ST TREBLE
6/7/1 2,464
6/7/2 1,040
4TH DOUBLE
7/1 213.5
7/2 69