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Happy Valley · 2023-11-29 · 14:30

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD 1800m Course C+3 10 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2023-11-29 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. CHILL CHIBI, ridden by C L Chau and trained by C S Shum, won by 1, with ROMANTIC LAOS second and FRANTANCK third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.1 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.49.20
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 CHILL CHIBI Closed strongly TT 1.49.20 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · C S Shum 6 2.1 1
2 3 ROMANTIC LAOS Closed strongly H/TT J McDonald · W K Mo 3 9.1 1
3 10 FRANTANCK K Teetan · P C Ng 5 5.2 2-3/4
4 2 ESCAPE ROUTE Closed strongly H B Avdulla · J Size 10 27.0 3-1/2
5 5 LEAN HERO B/TT K C Leung · D A Hayes 8 8.3 3-1/2
6 8 GALLANT HERO Closed strongly M F Poon · D J Hall 2 16.0 4
7 6 S J TOURBILLON Closed strongly CP/SR/XB/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 7 27.0 4-1/4
8 4 MAJESTIC VICTORY Led early TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 9 13.0 5-1/2
9 7 BIG RED XB1 Z Purton · C W Chang 4 9.7 7-1/2
10 9 SURUGA BAY B1 M L Yeung · P C Ng 1 55.0 16-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHILL CHIBI2. ROMANTIC LAOS+1L3. FRANTANCK+2.75L4. ESCAPE ROUTE+3.5L5. LEAN HERO+3.5L6. GALLANT HERO+4L7. S J TOURBILLON+4.25L8. MAJESTIC VICTORY+5.5L9. BIG RED+7.5L10. SURUGA BAY+16.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick CHILL CHIBI (23.0%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 CHILL CHIBI 23.0% 4.35 1
2 3 ROMANTIC LAOS 21.8% 4.59 2
3 7 BIG RED 16.4% 6.08 9
4 10 FRANTANCK 9.3% 10.73 3
5 8 GALLANT HERO 9.2% 10.88 6
6 4 MAJESTIC VICTORY 7.0% 14.34 8
7 5 LEAN HERO 5.2% 19.13 5
8 9 SURUGA BAY 3.3% 30.50 10
9 2 ESCAPE ROUTE 2.5% 39.39 4
10 6 S J TOURBILLON 2.3% 43.98 7
CHILL CHIBI — wonROMANTIC LAOSBIG REDFRANTANCKGALLANT HEROMAJESTIC VICTORYLEAN HEROSURUGA BAYESCAPE ROUTES J TOURBILLON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 21.5

PLACE

1 12

3 26

10 18

QUINELLA

1,3 98.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 41

1,10 27.5

3,10 61.5

FORECAST

1,3 156

TIERCE

1,3,10 637

TRIO

1,3,10 148

FIRST 4

1,2,3,10 609

QUARTET

1,3,10,2 7,164

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

3/1 117

3/3 79