Happy Valley · 2023-11-29 · 11:45
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2023-11-29 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. HUMBLE STAR, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P C Ng, won by 1-1/4, with GRATEFUL HEART second and HEROIC MASTER third. The 2.3 favourite HEROIC MASTER finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | HUMBLE STAR SR/TT 0.57.18 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 3 | 2.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 1 | GRATEFUL HEART B/TT A Atzeni · W Y So | A Atzeni | W Y So | 4 | 10.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 4 | HEROIC MASTER CP/TT K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 1 | 2.3 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | EXPLOSIVE WITNESS SR/XB J McDonald · C Fownes | J McDonald | C Fownes | 7 | 7.6 | 2 |
| 5 | 8 | E UNIVERSE TT M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 6 | 24.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 6 | JOLLY RULER H M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 8 | 22.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 2 | CALIFORNIA DEEPLY TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 2 | 8.1 | 3 |
| 8 | 7 | YOUTH POWER K C Leung · D A Hayes | K C Leung | D A Hayes | 5 | 107.0 | 5-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | HUMBLE STAR | 29.5% | 3.39 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | CALIFORNIA DEEPLY | 24.1% | 4.14 | 7 |
| 3 | 4 | HEROIC MASTER | 20.5% | 4.87 | 3 |
| 4 | 3 | EXPLOSIVE WITNESS | 9.4% | 10.64 | 4 |
| 5 | 1 | GRATEFUL HEART | 8.3% | 12.03 | 2 |
| 6 | 6 | JOLLY RULER | 5.7% | 17.50 | 6 |
| 7 | 7 | YOUTH POWER | 1.6% | 63.75 | 8 |
| 8 | 8 | E UNIVERSE | 0.9% | 117.20 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 29.5
PLACE
1 22.5
4 12
5 12
QUINELLA
1,5 134.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 45.5
1,5 45.5
4,5 17
FORECAST
5,1 211
TIERCE
5,1,4 416
TRIO
1,4,5 82
FIRST 4
1,3,4,5 47
QUARTET
5,1,4,3 928
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
8/1 63.5
8/5 183.5
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
6,8,9/1,4,5 2,166