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Happy Valley · 2024-01-04 · 11:55

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 10 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2024-01-04 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SHINKANSEN, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1-1/4, with TRAVEL GOLF second and COLONEL third. The 4.1 favourite MY INTELLIGENT finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.10.16
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 SHINKANSEN H/SR/TT 1.10.16 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D J Whyte 4 5.8 1-1/4
2 3 TRAVEL GOLF B2/TT B Avdulla · C H Yip 2 4.2 1-1/4
3 9 COLONEL V H T Mo · P F Yiu 10 6.8 1-3/4
4 6 HAPPY SOUL CP/TT C L Chau · C S Shum 8 18.0 1-3/4
5 2 ROYAL PRIDE B/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 3 10.0 3
6 8 MY INTELLIGENT V/TT L Hewitson · W Y So 1 4.1 3-1/4
7 4 FLYING PHANTOM H A Badel · J Size 7 13.0 3-1/2
8 1 YOUTH POWER H1 K C Leung · D A Hayes 5 81.0 4-1/2
9 7 NEW POWER H A Hamelin · C W Chang 9 31.0 4-3/4
10 5 LUCKY SYMPHONY TT1 A Atzeni · J Richards 6 6.5 7-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SHINKANSEN2. TRAVEL GOLF+1.25L3. COLONEL+1.75L4. HAPPY SOUL+1.75L5. ROYAL PRIDE+3L6. MY INTELLIGENT+3.25L7. FLYING PHANTOM+3.5L8. YOUTH POWER+4.5L9. NEW POWER+4.75L10. LUCKY SYMPHONY+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick SHINKANSEN (17.9%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 SHINKANSEN 17.9% 5.59 1
2 8 MY INTELLIGENT 17.2% 5.81 6
3 2 ROYAL PRIDE 13.5% 7.38 5
4 3 TRAVEL GOLF 11.4% 8.79 2
5 6 HAPPY SOUL 10.2% 9.84 4
6 4 FLYING PHANTOM 9.6% 10.43 7
7 5 LUCKY SYMPHONY 7.2% 13.96 10
8 7 NEW POWER 6.7% 14.90 9
9 9 COLONEL 5.5% 18.27 3
10 1 YOUTH POWER 0.8% 118.01 8
SHINKANSEN — wonMY INTELLIGENTROYAL PRIDETRAVEL GOLFHAPPY SOULFLYING PHANTOMLUCKY SYMPHONYNEW POWERCOLONELYOUTH POWER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 58

PLACE

3 17

9 29

10 19.5

QUINELLA

3,10 129

QUINELLA PLACE

3,9 51

3,10 49

9,10 81

FORECAST

10,3 264

TIERCE

10,3,9 2,314

TRIO

3,9,10 424

FIRST 4

3,6,9,10 717

QUARTET

10,3,9,6 10,269

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

5/3 20

5/10 131.5

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

3,5,6/3,9,10 45,992