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Happy Valley · 2024-01-04 · 13:55

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course A 11 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2024-01-04 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. GALLANT WAKING, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by N, with MOMENTS IN TIME second and THESIS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.0 favourite M UNICORN finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.40.36
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 GALLANT WAKING Closed strongly 1.40.36 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 10 6.4 N
2 1 MOMENTS IN TIME TT Y L Chung · C S Shum 2 10.0 N
3 7 THESIS Closed strongly TT A Badel · F C Lor 1 5.5 1-1/2
4 11 M UNICORN Closed strongly H/P/TT H Bentley · C Fownes 4 2.0 2
5 5 IVY LEAGUE H/SR/XB/TT L Ferraris · D J Whyte 7 17.0 2-3/4
6 2 WINNING DRAGON H/B1/TT L Hewitson · A S Cruz 3 23.0 3-1/2
7 3 PRIME MINISTER Closed strongly TT M F Poon · P F Yiu 11 35.0 4
8 6 ABSOLUTE SUNSHINE CP/TT A Atzeni · D A Hayes 8 110.0 4-3/4
9 10 FOOLISH HEART V K C Leung · C W Chang 5 11.0 5
10 9 VIVA HUNTER Led early TT H T Mo · K L Man 9 35.0 5-1/2
11 8 TRADITION B1 K Teetan · P C Ng 6 36.0 6

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GALLANT WAKING2. MOMENTS IN TIME+0.05L3. THESIS+1.5L4. M UNICORN+2L5. IVY LEAGUE+2.75L6. WINNING DRAGON+3.5L7. PRIME MINISTER+4L8. ABSOLUTE SUNSHINE+4.75L9. FOOLISH HEART+5L10. VIVA HUNTER+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick THESIS (33.5%) finished 3rd — the winner GALLANT WAKING was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 THESIS 33.5% 2.99 3
2 11 M UNICORN 20.2% 4.94 4
3 4 GALLANT WAKING 8.4% 11.88 1
4 1 MOMENTS IN TIME 8.3% 11.99 2
5 8 TRADITION 6.8% 14.67 11
6 10 FOOLISH HEART 6.0% 16.68 9
7 5 IVY LEAGUE 5.7% 17.64 5
8 2 WINNING DRAGON 4.6% 21.87 6
9 3 PRIME MINISTER 2.9% 33.93 7
10 9 VIVA HUNTER 2.9% 34.29 10
11 6 ABSOLUTE SUNSHINE 0.6% 167.27 8
THESISM UNICORNGALLANT WAKING — wonMOMENTS IN TIMETRADITIONFOOLISH HEARTIVY LEAGUEWINNING DRAGONPRIME MINISTERVIVA HUNTERABSOLUTE SUNSHINE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 64.5

PLACE

1 26

4 19

7 16.5

QUINELLA

1,4 310.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 101

1,7 90

4,7 52.5

FORECAST

4,1 483

TIERCE

4,1,7 2,604

TRIO

1,4,7 392

FIRST 4

1,4,7,11 168

QUARTET

4,1,7,11 6,290

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

9,10,12/1,4,7 34,878

5TH DOUBLE

12/1 86.5

12/4 214

TRIPLE TRIO

7,10,11/9,10,12/1,4,7 3,735,167

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

7,10,11/9,10,12/Any Combination 47,084