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Happy Valley · 2024-01-04 · 14:25

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course A 11 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2024-01-04 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. BON'S A PEARLA, ridden by A Badel and trained by P C Ng, won by N, with BEAUTY WAVES second and SUPERB CAPITALIST third. The 2.1 favourite BEAUTY WAVES finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.80
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 BON'S A PEARLA B 1.09.80 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · P C Ng 5 7.4 N
2 7 BEAUTY WAVES XB/SR1 K Teetan · D J Whyte 1 2.1 N
3 3 SUPERB CAPITALIST H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 2 21.0 1/2
4 9 RIGHTEOUS ARION H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 4 6.0 1-1/4
5 2 TOMODACHI KOKOROE H-/TT C Y Ho · D A Hayes 8 8.0 2-1/2
6 8 ACT OF FAITH B B Avdulla · J Size 11 52.0 3
7 10 PARTERRE B L Hewitson · W Y So 10 94.0 4
8 6 HOSS XB/B1/TT H Bentley · P C Ng 9 36.0 4-3/4
9 1 ATOMIC FORCE H/XB L Ferraris · C Fownes 6 23.0 5-1/2
10 11 CHAMPION METHOD CP1/TT C L Chau · C S Shum 3 15.0 5-1/2
11 5 EXCELLENT FIGHTER B/TT A Atzeni · P F Yiu 7 10.0 7

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BON'S A PEARLA2. BEAUTY WAVES+0.05L3. SUPERB CAPITALIST+0.5L4. RIGHTEOUS ARION+1.25L5. TOMODACHI KOKOROE+2.5L6. ACT OF FAITH+3L7. PARTERRE+4L8. HOSS+4.75L9. ATOMIC FORCE+5.5L10. CHAMPION METHOD+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick BEAUTY WAVES (31.1%) finished 2nd — the winner BON'S A PEARLA was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 BEAUTY WAVES 31.1% 3.21 2
2 2 TOMODACHI KOKOROE 10.1% 9.89 5
3 4 BON'S A PEARLA 8.7% 11.45 1
4 9 RIGHTEOUS ARION 8.2% 12.26 4
5 1 ATOMIC FORCE 8.2% 12.26 9
6 5 EXCELLENT FIGHTER 7.2% 13.84 11
7 11 CHAMPION METHOD 7.0% 14.30 10
8 3 SUPERB CAPITALIST 6.7% 14.99 3
9 8 ACT OF FAITH 5.3% 18.88 6
10 6 HOSS 4.7% 21.13 8
11 10 PARTERRE 2.8% 35.79 7
BEAUTY WAVESTOMODACHI KOKOROEBON'S A PEARLA — wonRIGHTEOUS ARIONATOMIC FORCEEXCELLENT FIGHTERCHAMPION METHODSUPERB CAPITALISTACT OF FAITHHOSSPARTERRE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 74

PLACE

3 54

4 20.5

7 13

QUINELLA

4,7 79.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 194

3,7 84

4,7 31

FORECAST

4,7 245

TIERCE

4,7,3 3,388

TRIO

3,4,7 404

FIRST 4

3,4,7,9 446

QUARTET

4,7,3,9 14,736

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

4/4 228

4/7 27.5