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Happy Valley · 2024-01-04 · 12:20

Race 3

Class 5 GOOD 1650m Course A 12 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2024-01-04 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. CORDYCEPS ONE, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by N, with MEDIC ELITE second and ONE HEART ONE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite ONE HEART ONE finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.41.54
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 CORDYCEPS ONE Closed strongly 1.41.54 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 9 8.8 N
2 9 MEDIC ELITE Closed strongly PC/TT A Badel · P C Ng 7 5.5 N
3 8 ONE HEART ONE Closed strongly CP/XB/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes 4 3.9 3/4
4 1 BIG TWO Closed strongly SR/XB/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 11 24.0 2-1/2
5 12 JOYFUL CHAMPION B2/TT M F Poon · C W Chang 2 8.1 2-3/4
6 3 ASIAN ONE Closed strongly PC-/XB/V2/TT A Atzeni · J Richards 10 17.0 3
7 10 HANG'S CHOICE Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · W Y So 6 7.5 4-3/4
8 2 TACTICAL COMMAND Closed strongly M Chadwick · M Newnham 5 39.0 5
9 4 HAPPY HUNK H/TT K C Leung · K L Man 3 50.0 5-3/4
10 6 REGENCY HAPPY STAR CP/H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 12 8.3 9
11 11 MISTER ARM Led early H T Mo · Y S Tsui 1 18.0 13-1/2
12 7 HAPPY JAI JAI TT C L Chau · T P Yung 8 11.0 14

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CORDYCEPS ONE2. MEDIC ELITE+0.05L3. ONE HEART ONE+0.75L4. BIG TWO+2.5L5. JOYFUL CHAMPION+2.75L6. ASIAN ONE+3L7. HANG'S CHOICE+4.75L8. TACTICAL COMMAND+5L9. HAPPY HUNK+5.75L10. REGENCY HAPPY STAR+9L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick MEDIC ELITE (19.9%) finished 2nd — the winner CORDYCEPS ONE was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 MEDIC ELITE 19.9% 5.02 2
2 6 REGENCY HAPPY STAR 13.1% 7.64 10
3 7 HAPPY JAI JAI 13.0% 7.67 12
4 12 JOYFUL CHAMPION 12.4% 8.07 5
5 8 ONE HEART ONE 9.9% 10.08 3
6 3 ASIAN ONE 7.7% 12.95 6
7 10 HANG'S CHOICE 7.4% 13.50 7
8 5 CORDYCEPS ONE 6.2% 16.20 1
9 2 TACTICAL COMMAND 3.7% 26.72 8
10 1 BIG TWO 3.1% 32.41 4
11 4 HAPPY HUNK 2.3% 42.78 9
12 11 MISTER ARM 1.2% 86.35 11
MEDIC ELITEREGENCY HAPPY STARHAPPY JAI JAIJOYFUL CHAMPIONONE HEART ONEASIAN ONEHANG'S CHOICECORDYCEPS ONE — wonTACTICAL COMMANDBIG TWOHAPPY HUNKMISTER ARM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 88

PLACE

5 29.5

8 16.5

9 22

QUINELLA

5,9 293

QUINELLA PLACE

5,8 71

5,9 95

8,9 56

FORECAST

5,9 714

TIERCE

5,9,8 2,621

TRIO

5,8,9 388

FIRST 4

1,5,8,9 2,084

QUARTET

5,9,8,1 50,008

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

10/5 458.5

10/9 56