Sha Tin · 2024-03-10
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2024-03-10 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. SMART BEAUTY, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by A S Cruz, won by 2-1/4, with COLOURFUL BARON second and M M NEBULA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.4 favourite COLOURFUL BARON finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | SMART BEAUTY Closed strongly B/H/TT 1.49.10 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 8 | 6.3 | 2-1/4 |
| 2 | 6 | COLOURFUL BARON Closed strongly B/TT Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | 9 | 4.4 | 2-1/4 |
| 3 | 5 | M M NEBULA Led early PC/TT Y L Chung · P C Ng | Y L Chung | P C Ng | 4 | 12.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 14 | JOYFUL CHAMPION Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · C W Chang | K Teetan | C W Chang | 11 | 8.9 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 13 | STAR OF GLORY B A Atzeni · C W Chang | A Atzeni | C W Chang | 1 | 7.7 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 2 | HORSE OF GOOD LUCK Closed strongly K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 14 | 33.0 | 5 |
| 7 | 9 | ARTHUR'S KINGDOM Closed strongly H/TT M Chadwick · Y S Tsui | M Chadwick | Y S Tsui | 10 | 11.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 1 | SPLENDID STAR SR/TT H Bowman · D J Whyte | H Bowman | D J Whyte | 3 | 5.6 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 10 | COPARTNER ERA Closed strongly B K De Melo · W Y So | K De Melo | W Y So | 6 | 30.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 7 | LEATHER MASTER B C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 5 | 29.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 4 | HAPPY HERO Closed strongly B H Bentley · M Newnham | H Bentley | M Newnham | 13 | 26.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 8 | FASTPASS B/SR/XB L Ferraris · K W Lui | L Ferraris | K W Lui | 2 | 40.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 13 | 3 | DRAGON PRIDE B A Badel · T P Yung | A Badel | T P Yung | 12 | 32.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 14 | 12 | GREEN LASER PC/TT M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 7 | 20.0 | 7-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | COLOURFUL BARON | 14.8% | 6.74 | 2 |
| 2 | 5 | M M NEBULA | 13.9% | 7.18 | 3 |
| 3 | 13 | STAR OF GLORY | 11.7% | 8.54 | 5 |
| 4 | 1 | SPLENDID STAR | 11.2% | 8.89 | 8 |
| 5 | 11 | SMART BEAUTY | 8.7% | 11.47 | 1 |
| 6 | 9 | ARTHUR'S KINGDOM | 6.6% | 15.08 | 7 |
| 7 | 14 | JOYFUL CHAMPION | 5.5% | 18.10 | 4 |
| 8 | 4 | HAPPY HERO | 4.7% | 21.17 | 11 |
| 9 | 2 | HORSE OF GOOD LUCK | 4.2% | 23.95 | 6 |
| 10 | 8 | FASTPASS | 4.1% | 24.28 | 12 |
| 11 | 10 | COPARTNER ERA | 3.9% | 25.66 | 9 |
| 12 | 3 | DRAGON PRIDE | 3.7% | 27.29 | 13 |
| 13 | 7 | LEATHER MASTER | 3.4% | 29.11 | 10 |
| 14 | 12 | GREEN LASER | 3.4% | 29.51 | 14 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 63
PLACE
5 40.5
6 19.5
11 19
QUINELLA
6,11 142
QUINELLA PLACE
5,6 94.5
5,11 133.5
6,11 54.5
FORECAST
11,6 326
TIERCE
11,6,5 2,568
TRIO
5,6,11 435
FIRST 4
5,6,11,14 906
QUARTET
11,6,5,14 20,284