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Sha Tin · 2024-03-10

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course C 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2024-03-10 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. BOWSER, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by P F Yiu, won by NOSE, with LUCKY SYMPHONY second and PROSECCO third. The 2.9 favourite FUN ELITE finished 4th.

Result

Official · 0.57.83
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 BOWSER TT 0.57.83 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · P F Yiu 7 5.0 NOSE
2 10 LUCKY SYMPHONY H1/P1/TT A Atzeni · J Richards 9 32.0 NOSE
3 14 PROSECCO SR/V/TT K Teetan · W Y So 2 12.0 SH
4 2 FUN ELITE TT H Bowman · T P Yung 4 2.9 1/2
5 6 CHEERFUL WORLD L Ferraris · F C Lor 13 29.0 3/4
6 1 THE GREAT MASTER H1/TT Y L Chung · Y S Tsui 14 18.0 1-1/4
7 13 HELLS BELLS SR/XB/TT1 B Thompson · D J Whyte 12 36.0 2
8 3 METRO WARRIOR CP E C W Wong · D A Hayes 1 5.7 2-3/4
9 8 PROSPEROUS SMILE CP- A Badel · P C Ng 8 34.0 3-1/4
10 12 FANCY STAR P/TT M L Yeung · C Fownes 10 79.0 3-1/2
11 4 PANDA B Z Purton · C H Yip 11 6.0 4-1/2
12 11 MARIO B B Avdulla · D J Hall 3 161.0 4-1/2
13 9 CERVIN B-/TT1 K H Chan · W Y So 5 128.0 4-3/4
14 7 DEEP PURSUIT H1/TT1 H Bentley · C Fownes 6 21.0 5

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BOWSER2. LUCKY SYMPHONY+0.05L3. PROSECCO+0.1L4. FUN ELITE+0.5L5. CHEERFUL WORLD+0.75L6. THE GREAT MASTER+1.25L7. HELLS BELLS+2L8. METRO WARRIOR+2.75L9. PROSPEROUS SMILE+3.25L10. FANCY STAR+3.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick FUN ELITE (23.0%) finished 4th — the winner BOWSER was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 FUN ELITE 23.0% 4.35 4
2 14 PROSECCO 17.6% 5.68 3
3 4 PANDA 16.5% 6.07 11
4 5 BOWSER 9.4% 10.69 1
5 3 METRO WARRIOR 8.7% 11.47 8
6 6 CHEERFUL WORLD 6.7% 15.02 5
7 7 DEEP PURSUIT 6.1% 16.51 14
8 8 PROSPEROUS SMILE 2.7% 36.84 9
9 9 CERVIN 2.7% 37.00 13
10 10 LUCKY SYMPHONY 2.2% 45.93 2
11 13 HELLS BELLS 1.8% 54.32 7
12 11 MARIO 1.4% 71.62 12
13 12 FANCY STAR 0.7% 141.99 10
14 1 THE GREAT MASTER 0.6% 167.81 6
FUN ELITEPROSECCOPANDABOWSER — wonMETRO WARRIORCHEERFUL WORLDDEEP PURSUITPROSPEROUS SMILECERVINLUCKY SYMPHONYHELLS BELLSMARIOFANCY STARTHE GREAT MASTER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 50.5

PLACE

5 18

10 72

14 31

QUINELLA

5,10 812

QUINELLA PLACE

5,10 226

5,14 88.5

10,14 522

FORECAST

5,10 1,178

TIERCE

5,10,14 15,288

TRIO

5,10,14 2,998

FIRST 4

2,5,10,14 1,528

QUARTET

5,10,14,2 48,254

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

11/5 190.5

11/10 355

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

5,6,11/5,10,14 124,625