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Sha Tin · 2024-03-10

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD TO YIELDING 1600m Course C 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2024-03-10 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. FRANTANCK, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by P C Ng, won by 3/4, with ILLUMINOUS second and BEATO third. The winner led throughout. The 4.2 favourite GIDDY UP finished 9th.

Result

Official · 1.36.59
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 FRANTANCK Wire to wire 1.36.59 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · P C Ng 8 9.2 3/4
2 3 ILLUMINOUS Closed strongly B-/V1 K Teetan · F C Lor 4 8.3 3/4
3 11 BEATO Closed strongly B-/V1/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 7 4.8 1
4 5 KARMA Closed strongly TT H Bowman · C Fownes 10 9.4 1-3/4
5 8 MASTER OF FORTUNE Closed strongly TT B Avdulla · P C Ng 5 17.0 1-3/4
6 7 BEAUTY FIT E/P A Hamelin · J Size 9 15.0 2-1/2
7 9 SOLEIL FIGHTER XB K C Leung · D A Hayes 14 11.0 3
8 13 TALENTS AMBITION Closed strongly XB A Atzeni · M Newnham 2 9.7 3-1/4
9 4 GIDDY UP Closed strongly TT J McDonald · J Richards 1 4.2 4
10 1 UNIVERSAL HORIZON B C L Chau · K W Lui 12 31.0 4-1/4
11 2 GOLDEN ARTIE H/XB A Badel · P F Yiu 13 24.0 6
12 6 ACCOLADE START TT H Bentley · C S Shum 11 68.0 7-1/4
13 14 HAKKA RADIANCE H/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 3 111.0 10-1/4
14 10 YOUNG BRILLIANT K De Melo · C H Yip 6 35.0 21-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FRANTANCK2. ILLUMINOUS+0.75L3. BEATO+1L4. KARMA+1.75L5. MASTER OF FORTUNE+1.75L6. BEAUTY FIT+2.5L7. SOLEIL FIGHTER+3L8. TALENTS AMBITION+3.25L9. GIDDY UP+4L10. UNIVERSAL HORIZON+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick BEATO (17.2%) finished 3rd — the winner FRANTANCK was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 BEATO 17.2% 5.82 3
2 4 GIDDY UP 16.2% 6.16 9
3 5 KARMA 13.7% 7.32 4
4 2 GOLDEN ARTIE 7.5% 13.30 11
5 12 FRANTANCK 7.2% 13.82 1
6 13 TALENTS AMBITION 7.0% 14.23 8
7 3 ILLUMINOUS 6.1% 16.43 2
8 9 SOLEIL FIGHTER 5.6% 17.76 7
9 1 UNIVERSAL HORIZON 4.7% 21.29 10
10 7 BEAUTY FIT 4.5% 22.01 6
11 8 MASTER OF FORTUNE 4.4% 22.48 5
12 10 YOUNG BRILLIANT 3.6% 28.12 14
13 6 ACCOLADE START 1.6% 63.47 12
14 14 HAKKA RADIANCE 0.6% 157.31 13
BEATOGIDDY UPKARMAGOLDEN ARTIEFRANTANCK — wonTALENTS AMBITIONILLUMINOUSSOLEIL FIGHTERUNIVERSAL HORIZONBEAUTY FITMASTER OF FORTUNEYOUNG BRILLIANTACCOLADE STARTHAKKA RADIANCE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 92

PLACE

3 30.5

11 19

12 26.5

QUINELLA

3,12 478

QUINELLA PLACE

3,11 72.5

3,12 147.5

11,12 85.5

FORECAST

12,3 906

TIERCE

12,3,11 4,710

TRIO

3,11,12 676

FIRST 4

3,5,11,12 804

QUARTET

12,3,11,5 21,560

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

6/3/3 466

6/3/12 4,947

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

2,3,5/3,11,12 61,690

9TH DOUBLE

3/3 65

3/12 984.5

SIX UP

1/7,12/2/6/3/12 348,328

1,8/2,7,12/2,10/6,8/3,5/3,12 11,420

2 [A S Cruz]

1 [Z Purton]