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Sha Tin · 2024-03-10

Race 3

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2024-03-10 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SOLID IMPACT, ridden by A Badel and trained by D J Hall, won by SH, with EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS second and NORTHERN BEACHES third. The 1.9 favourite EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.10.04
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 SOLID IMPACT CP 1.10.04 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · D J Hall 2 6.1 SH
2 3 EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS B/TT Z Purton · T P Yung 8 1.9 SH
3 4 NORTHERN BEACHES K Teetan · W Y So 10 17.0 N
4 5 FASHION LEGEND TT H Bentley · C Fownes 4 18.0 3/4
5 11 SIXTH GENERATION H/B2/TT A Atzeni · J Richards 6 42.0 1-3/4
6 6 PINS PRINCE H/P/TT B Avdulla · J Size 1 33.0 2
7 2 HASTEN DELIGHT B1/TT1 H Bowman · K W Lui 9 4.0 2-1/4
8 9 KYEEMA M Chadwick · M Newnham 11 141.0 3
9 1 CAMPIONE TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 3 35.0 4
10 8 APOLAR FIGHTER H T Mo · P F Yiu 7 145.0 6-3/4
11 7 ACE ONE B-/V1/TT A Hamelin · D J Whyte 12 81.0 7-3/4
12 12 LOST CHILD B M L Yeung · C W Chang 5 13.0 10-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SOLID IMPACT2. EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS+0.1L3. NORTHERN BEACHES+0.05L4. FASHION LEGEND+0.75L5. SIXTH GENERATION+1.75L6. PINS PRINCE+2L7. HASTEN DELIGHT+2.25L8. KYEEMA+3L9. CAMPIONE+4L10. APOLAR FIGHTER+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS (44.1%) finished 2nd — the winner SOLID IMPACT was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS 44.1% 2.27 2
2 2 HASTEN DELIGHT 10.9% 9.21 7
3 10 SOLID IMPACT 10.8% 9.26 1
4 12 LOST CHILD 6.7% 14.81 12
5 11 SIXTH GENERATION 5.6% 17.97 5
6 4 NORTHERN BEACHES 5.3% 18.78 3
7 6 PINS PRINCE 4.7% 21.23 6
8 5 FASHION LEGEND 4.6% 21.82 4
9 1 CAMPIONE 2.3% 43.60 9
10 7 ACE ONE 2.1% 47.07 11
11 8 APOLAR FIGHTER 1.8% 54.38 10
12 9 KYEEMA 1.0% 97.72 8
EIGHTY LIGHT YEARSHASTEN DELIGHTSOLID IMPACT — wonLOST CHILDSIXTH GENERATIONNORTHERN BEACHESPINS PRINCEFASHION LEGENDCAMPIONEACE ONEAPOLAR FIGHTERKYEEMA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 61.5

PLACE

3 11

4 32

10 18

QUINELLA

3,10 58.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 50

3,10 26

4,10 103

FORECAST

10,3 179

TIERCE

10,3,4 1,290

TRIO

3,4,10 215

FIRST 4

3,4,5,10 367

QUARTET

10,3,4,5 9,044

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

5/3 17.5

5/10 190