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Sha Tin · 2024-03-31 · 05:46

Race 3

Class 2 GOOD 1600m Course A+3 7 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2024-03-31 was Class 2 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. FLAMING RABBIT, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1-1/4, with THE GOLDEN SCENERY second and MUGEN third. The winner led throughout. The 1.5 favourite MUGEN finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.35.15
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 FLAMING RABBIT Wire to wire XB-/SR/TT1 1.35.15 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · D J Whyte 7 4.7 1-1/4
2 1 THE GOLDEN SCENERY Closed strongly TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 1 12.0 1-1/4
3 4 MUGEN Closed strongly H1 H Bowman · P C Ng 2 1.5 1-3/4
4 2 ALL FOR ST PAUL'S B M F Poon · F C Lor 6 22.0 3
5 3 RUNNING GLORY Closed strongly B/TT B Thompson · D A Hayes 5 78.0 3-1/2
6 7 SUPERB BOY TT A Badel · K W Lui 3 5.6 5
7 6 RISING FROM ASHES B/TT H T Mo · C W Chang 4 48.0 6

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FLAMING RABBIT—2. THE GOLDEN SCENERY+1.25L3. MUGEN+1.75L4. ALL FOR ST PAUL'S+3L5. RUNNING GLORY+3.5L6. SUPERB BOY+5L7. RISING FROM ASHES+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick MUGEN (51.7%) finished 3rd — the winner FLAMING RABBIT was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 MUGEN 51.7% 1.93 3
2 7 SUPERB BOY 34.3% 2.92 6
3 5 FLAMING RABBIT 5.3% 18.72 1
4 2 ALL FOR ST PAUL'S 3.1% 32.29 4
5 1 THE GOLDEN SCENERY 2.7% 37.65 2
6 6 RISING FROM ASHES 1.8% 55.82 7
7 3 RUNNING GLORY 1.1% 87.98 5
MUGENSUPERB BOYFLAMING RABBIT — wonALL FOR ST PAUL'STHE GOLDEN SCENERYRISING FROM ASHESRUNNING GLORY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 47.5

PLACE

1 17.5

4 10.1

5 14.5

QUINELLA

1,5 241.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 19

1,5 38.5

4,5 15.5

FORECAST

5,1 375

TIERCE

5,1,4 643

TRIO

1,4,5 42

FIRST 4

1,2,4,5 129

QUARTET

5,1,4,2 4,809

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

6/1 108

6/5 442

← Race 2 Race 4 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1600m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99