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Sha Tin · 2024-03-31 · 06:19

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2024-03-31 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. PROSECCO, ridden by K Teetan and trained by W Y So, won by 1/2, with RED ELEGANCE second and GLORY ELITE third. Victory came as the 4.3 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.56.78
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 14 PROSECCO SR/V/TT 0.56.78 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · W Y So 11 4.3 1/2
2 4 RED ELEGANCE CP-/B1/TT- M Chadwick · D J Whyte 7 8.9 1/2
3 9 GLORY ELITE H1 K C Leung · K H Ting 6 17.0 1-1/4
4 5 MULTISUPER CP-/B2/TT1 L Hewitson · P F Yiu 1 16.0 1-1/2
5 10 PARENTS' LOVE H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 12 7.7 1-3/4
6 12 GUSTY FIGHTER P1/TT A Hamelin · J Richards 13 42.0 1-3/4
7 7 THE PERFECT MATCH TT1 Z Purton · C S Shum 5 7.3 2-1/2
8 8 FLYING PHANTOM H B Avdulla · J Size 4 20.0 2-3/4
9 6 MATSU VICTOR M F Poon · K W Lui 8 46.0 3-1/2
10 3 METRO WARRIOR CP H Bowman · D A Hayes 9 4.6 3-1/2
11 1 SUPER COMMANDER V-/TT- B Thompson · C H Yip 14 16.0 5-1/4
12 13 KOWLOON EAST STAR H/SR/TT C L Chau · K L Man 2 20.0 8
13 11 FANCY STAR P/TT M L Yeung · C Fownes 3 54.0 10-1/2
14 2 THE GREAT MASTER H/TT E C W Wong · Y S Tsui 10 23.0 14

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PROSECCO2. RED ELEGANCE+0.5L3. GLORY ELITE+1.25L4. MULTISUPER+1.5L5. PARENTS' LOVE+1.75L6. GUSTY FIGHTER+1.75L7. THE PERFECT MATCH+2.5L8. FLYING PHANTOM+2.75L9. MATSU VICTOR+3.5L10. METRO WARRIOR+3.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick THE PERFECT MATCH (26.6%) finished 7th — the winner PROSECCO was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 THE PERFECT MATCH 26.6% 3.76 7
2 14 PROSECCO 11.2% 8.96 1
3 5 MULTISUPER 9.1% 10.94 4
4 3 METRO WARRIOR 8.9% 11.26 10
5 8 FLYING PHANTOM 8.1% 12.34 8
6 6 MATSU VICTOR 7.4% 13.52 9
7 10 PARENTS' LOVE 7.0% 14.29 5
8 13 KOWLOON EAST STAR 4.9% 20.42 12
9 9 GLORY ELITE 4.3% 23.32 3
10 1 SUPER COMMANDER 4.2% 23.80 11
11 4 RED ELEGANCE 3.2% 31.14 2
12 2 THE GREAT MASTER 2.0% 49.58 14
13 12 GUSTY FIGHTER 1.8% 55.04 6
14 11 FANCY STAR 1.3% 77.70 13
THE PERFECT MATCHPROSECCO — wonMULTISUPERMETRO WARRIORFLYING PHANTOMMATSU VICTORPARENTS' LOVEKOWLOON EAST STARGLORY ELITESUPER COMMANDERRED ELEGANCETHE GREAT MASTERGUSTY FIGHTERFANCY STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

14 43

PLACE

4 29.5

9 51.5

14 17

QUINELLA

4,14 220.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,9 251.5

4,14 79.5

9,14 142.5

FORECAST

14,4 470

TIERCE

14,4,9 6,363

TRIO

4,9,14 1,266

FIRST 4

4,5,9,14 4,319

QUARTET

14,4,9,5 60,560

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,4,5/4,9,14 9,576

3RD DOUBLE

5/4 84

5/14 298