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Sha Tin · 2024-03-31 · 05:17

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 1200m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2024-03-31 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SMART LEADER, ridden by K De Melo and trained by W Y So, won by 1-1/4, with COMMANDING MISSILE second and GOOD VIEW GLORY third. The 3.2 favourite NOBLE ONE finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.09.83
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 SMART LEADER PC/XB/TT 1.09.83 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K De Melo · W Y So 2 6.5 1-1/4
2 9 COMMANDING MISSILE B-/H- C L Chau · C W Chang 7 28.0 1-1/4
3 10 GOOD VIEW GLORY B Thompson · C H Yip 11 122.0 2
4 11 TIMESTORM V H Bowman · D J Hall 10 5.1 3-1/4
5 3 RATTAN WORLD B/TT A Hamelin · J Richards 12 18.0 3-3/4
6 7 SWEET DIAMOND TT A Badel · P F Yiu 14 11.0 4-1/4
7 2 NOBLE ONE B Z Purton · K W Lui 1 3.2 4-1/2
8 14 GREAT DAYS PC-/H/XB/P2 K Teetan · P C Ng 6 11.0 4-1/2
9 8 THE GOOD DEAL SR/TT L Ferraris · D J Whyte 9 23.0 4-1/2
10 5 HO HO STAR TT- M Chadwick · C H Yip 8 20.0 6
11 13 DRAGON KINGDOM Y L Chung · Y S Tsui 5 12.0 6-1/2
12 1 E GLORY B K C Leung · K L Man 3 14.0 7
13 4 E TALENT B/TT1 K H Chan · K L Man 4 159.0 7-3/4
14 12 DAY DAY RICH B/TT L Hewitson · T P Yung 13 28.0 11

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SMART LEADER2. COMMANDING MISSILE+1.25L3. GOOD VIEW GLORY+2L4. TIMESTORM+3.25L5. RATTAN WORLD+3.75L6. SWEET DIAMOND+4.25L7. NOBLE ONE+4.5L8. GREAT DAYS+4.5L9. THE GOOD DEAL+4.5L10. HO HO STAR+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick NOBLE ONE (38.1%) finished 7th — the winner SMART LEADER was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 NOBLE ONE 38.1% 2.62 7
2 7 SWEET DIAMOND 10.2% 9.77 6
3 14 GREAT DAYS 8.1% 12.32 8
4 6 SMART LEADER 8.0% 12.54 1
5 11 TIMESTORM 7.8% 12.86 4
6 3 RATTAN WORLD 5.8% 17.14 5
7 13 DRAGON KINGDOM 4.7% 21.14 11
8 1 E GLORY 4.6% 21.70 12
9 8 THE GOOD DEAL 4.3% 23.50 9
10 12 DAY DAY RICH 2.7% 36.52 14
11 9 COMMANDING MISSILE 2.2% 46.12 2
12 5 HO HO STAR 1.7% 59.32 10
13 10 GOOD VIEW GLORY 1.3% 74.58 3
14 4 E TALENT 0.4% 234.56 13
NOBLE ONESWEET DIAMONDGREAT DAYSSMART LEADER — wonTIMESTORMRATTAN WORLDDRAGON KINGDOME GLORYTHE GOOD DEALDAY DAY RICHCOMMANDING MISSILEHO HO STARGOOD VIEW GLORYE TALENT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 65

PLACE

6 19

9 70.5

10 248.5

QUINELLA

6,9 898.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,9 248

6,10 778

9,10 2,864

FORECAST

6,9 1,735

TIERCE

6,9,10 80,360

TRIO

6,9,10 25,915

FIRST 4

6,9,10,11 25,916

QUARTET

6,9,10,11 1,197,313

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

8/6 162.5

8/9 164.5

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

8,10,13/6,9,10 882,939