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Sha Tin · 2024-03-31 · 07:42

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2024-03-31 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. VOYAGE SAMURAI, ridden by K C Leung and trained by F C Lor, won by 1-1/4, with WAR OF COURAGE second and TOP TOP TEA third. The winner led throughout. Victory came as the 2.0 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.23.00
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 VOYAGE SAMURAI Wire to wire 1.23.00 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · F C Lor 4 2.0 1-1/4
2 8 WAR OF COURAGE B K H Chan · K L Man 9 16.0 1-1/4
3 10 TOP TOP TEA Closed strongly Y L Chung · C H Yip 3 16.0 3-1/4
4 1 SIXTH GENERATION Closed strongly B/H/TT L Hewitson · J Richards 1 14.0 3-1/4
5 12 CHILLI BABA Closed strongly V A Hamelin · P F Yiu 12 14.0 5
6 14 NOBLE WIN Closed strongly E/XB B Thompson · J Size 2 14.0 5
7 5 GOLDEN DARCI P/XB H Bowman · D J Hall 6 6.3 5-3/4
8 11 PATCH OF TIME K Teetan · K H Ting 14 10.0 5-3/4
9 9 RIVER VIEWS C L Chau · T P Yung 10 34.0 6-3/4
10 6 JUMBO FORTUNE Closed strongly PC/XB B Avdulla · P C Ng 7 15.0 8-3/4
11 2 VERBIER H Bentley · C Fownes 13 131.0 10
12 4 FOREVER CHARM B1/TT A Badel · M Newnham 5 111.0 10-1/2
13 13 YOUTH POWER TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes 11 120.0 10-1/2
14 7 FIREFOOT K De Melo · W Y So 8 182.0 14
0 BEAUTY CHAMP H Bentley · W K Mo
0 PACKING WISHER Z Purton · C S Shum

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. VOYAGE SAMURAI2. WAR OF COURAGE+1.25L3. TOP TOP TEA+3.25L4. SIXTH GENERATION+3.25L5. CHILLI BABA+5L6. NOBLE WIN+5L7. GOLDEN DARCI+5.75L8. PATCH OF TIME+5.75L9. RIVER VIEWS+6.75L10. JUMBO FORTUNE+8.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick GOLDEN DARCI (20.0%) finished 7th — the winner VOYAGE SAMURAI was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 GOLDEN DARCI 20.0% 4.99 7
2 3 VOYAGE SAMURAI 17.3% 5.77 1
3 14 NOBLE WIN 11.1% 9.03 6
4 8 WAR OF COURAGE 10.7% 9.38 2
5 11 PATCH OF TIME 8.7% 11.53 8
6 12 CHILLI BABA 7.9% 12.66 5
7 10 TOP TOP TEA 6.1% 16.44 3
8 9 RIVER VIEWS 4.7% 21.50 9
9 6 JUMBO FORTUNE 4.2% 23.99 10
10 1 SIXTH GENERATION 3.2% 31.45 4
11 4 FOREVER CHARM 2.0% 49.77 12
12 2 VERBIER 1.9% 52.43 11
13 13 YOUTH POWER 1.6% 61.61 13
14 7 FIREFOOT 0.7% 141.61 14
GOLDEN DARCIVOYAGE SAMURAI — wonNOBLE WINWAR OF COURAGEPATCH OF TIMECHILLI BABATOP TOP TEARIVER VIEWSJUMBO FORTUNESIXTH GENERATIONFOREVER CHARMVERBIERYOUTH POWERFIREFOOT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 20

PLACE

3 10.5

8 50.5

10 43.5

QUINELLA

3,8 173

QUINELLA PLACE

3,8 74.5

3,10 68

8,10 333.5

FORECAST

3,8 268

TIERCE

3,8,10 2,492

TRIO

3,8,10 850

FIRST 4

1,3,8,10 2,174

QUARTET

3,8,10,1 25,615

All pools (3 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

4,6,11/3,8,10 1,085,887

5TH DOUBLE

11/3 706.5

11/8 1,142.5

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

4,9,14/Any Combination/Any Combination 310