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Sha Tin · 2024-03-31 · 08:12

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course A+3 12 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2024-03-31 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SUPERB KID, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K W Lui, won by 2, with BEAUTY MISSILE second and BEAUTY FIT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.22.87
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 SUPERB KID Closed strongly CP 1.22.87 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K W Lui 6 2.4 2
2 11 BEAUTY MISSILE Closed strongly PC K Teetan · F C Lor 5 3.3 2
3 8 BEAUTY FIT Led early E/P A Hamelin · J Size 10 9.3 3-3/4
4 5 CITY THUNDER Closed strongly B-/TT1 L Hewitson · W Y So 9 186.0 5
5 12 MIDORI BURLY Closed strongly XB-/B1 M F Poon · P F Yiu 12 13.0 5-1/4
6 3 VIVA GRACIOUSNESS B/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 3 14.0 5-1/2
7 6 LEEDOX Closed strongly B1/TT K De Melo · M Newnham 11 187.0 6
8 1 HUGE WAVE TT L Ferraris · K H Ting 1 8.3 6
9 7 ORIENTAL SMOKE B/TT H Bentley · D A Hayes 7 29.0 6-1/4
10 10 SUNNY DARLING V/TT Y L Chung · P C Ng 4 45.0 12-3/4
11 2 ALL IS GOOD B C L Chau · K W Lui 2 20.0 12-3/4
12 9 SATIRICAL FAN B1 K C Leung · C S Shum 8 69.0 27-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPERB KID2. BEAUTY MISSILE+2L3. BEAUTY FIT+3.75L4. CITY THUNDER+5L5. MIDORI BURLY+5.25L6. VIVA GRACIOUSNESS+5.5L7. LEEDOX+6L8. HUGE WAVE+6L9. ORIENTAL SMOKE+6.25L10. SUNNY DARLING+12.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick SUPERB KID (38.0%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 SUPERB KID 38.0% 2.63 1
2 11 BEAUTY MISSILE 19.2% 5.21 2
3 3 VIVA GRACIOUSNESS 9.5% 10.52 6
4 12 MIDORI BURLY 6.8% 14.64 5
5 1 HUGE WAVE 5.9% 16.85 8
6 7 ORIENTAL SMOKE 5.9% 16.98 9
7 8 BEAUTY FIT 5.3% 19.02 3
8 9 SATIRICAL FAN 2.6% 37.80 12
9 2 ALL IS GOOD 2.5% 40.30 11
10 10 SUNNY DARLING 2.3% 44.37 10
11 6 LEEDOX 1.1% 89.76 7
12 5 CITY THUNDER 0.9% 115.97 4
SUPERB KID — wonBEAUTY MISSILEVIVA GRACIOUSNESSMIDORI BURLYHUGE WAVEORIENTAL SMOKEBEAUTY FITSATIRICAL FANALL IS GOODSUNNY DARLINGLEEDOXCITY THUNDER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 24

PLACE

4 11

8 27

11 14.5

QUINELLA

4,11 37.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,8 41

4,11 19

8,11 52

FORECAST

4,11 75

TIERCE

4,11,8 338

TRIO

4,8,11 91

FIRST 4

4,5,8,11 2,256

QUARTET

4,11,8,5 13,987

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

3/4 45

3/11 14.5