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Sha Tin · 2024-03-31 · 16:11

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course A+3 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.87
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SUPERB KID Closed strongly CP 1.22.87 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K W Lui 6 2.4 2
2 0 BEAUTY MISSILE Closed strongly PC K Teetan · F C Lor 5 3.3 2
3 0 BEAUTY FIT Led early E/P A Hamelin · J Size 10 9.3 3-3/4
4 0 CITY THUNDER Closed strongly B-/TT1 L Hewitson · W Y So 9 186.0 5
5 0 MIDORI BURLY Closed strongly XB-/B1 M F Poon · P F Yiu 12 13.0 5-1/4
6 0 VIVA GRACIOUSNESS B/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 3 14.0 5-1/2
7 0 LEEDOX Closed strongly BR/B1/TT K De Melo · M Newnham 11 187.0 6
8 0 HUGE WAVE TT L Ferraris · K H Ting 1 8.3 6
9 0 ORIENTAL SMOKE B/TT H Bentley · D A Hayes 7 29.0 6-1/4
10 0 SUNNY DARLING V/TT Y L Chung · P C Ng 4 45.0 12-3/4
11 0 ALL IS GOOD B C L Chau · K W Lui 2 20.0 12-3/4
12 0 SATIRICAL FAN B1 K C Leung · C S Shum 8 69.0 27-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2024-03-31 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SUPERB KID, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K W Lui, won by 2, with BEAUTY MISSILE second and BEAUTY FIT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPERB KID—2. BEAUTY MISSILE+2L3. BEAUTY FIT+3.75L4. CITY THUNDER+5L5. MIDORI BURLY+5.25L6. VIVA GRACIOUSNESS+5.5L7. LEEDOX+6L8. HUGE WAVE+6L9. ORIENTAL SMOKE+6.25L10. SUNNY DARLING+12.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick SUPERB KID (38.0%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 SUPERB KID 38.0% 2.63 1
2 0 BEAUTY MISSILE 19.2% 5.21 2
3 0 VIVA GRACIOUSNESS 9.5% 10.52 6
4 0 MIDORI BURLY 6.8% 14.64 5
5 0 HUGE WAVE 5.9% 16.85 8
6 0 ORIENTAL SMOKE 5.9% 16.98 9
7 0 BEAUTY FIT 5.3% 19.02 3
8 0 SATIRICAL FAN 2.6% 37.80 12
9 0 ALL IS GOOD 2.5% 40.30 11
10 0 SUNNY DARLING 2.3% 44.37 10
11 0 LEEDOX 1.1% 89.76 7
12 0 CITY THUNDER 0.9% 115.97 4
SUPERB KID — wonBEAUTY MISSILEVIVA GRACIOUSNESSMIDORI BURLYHUGE WAVEORIENTAL SMOKEBEAUTY FITSATIRICAL FANALL IS GOODSUNNY DARLINGLEEDOXCITY THUNDER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 24

PLACE

4 11

8 27

11 14.5

QUINELLA

4,11 37.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,8 41

4,11 19

8,11 52

FORECAST

4,11 75

TIERCE

4,11,8 338

TRIO

4,8,11 91

FIRST 4

4,5,8,11 2,256

QUARTET

4,11,8,5 13,987

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

3/4 45

3/11 14.5