Happy Valley · 2024-07-04 · 11:42
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2024-07-04 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. GRAND NOVA, ridden by H Bowman and trained by J Size, won by N, with MA COMET second and COLOURFUL PRINCE third. The 4.1 favourite MA COMET finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | GRAND NOVA E 0.57.24 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · J Size | H Bowman | J Size | 6 | 4.9 | N |
| 2 | 2 | MA COMET P-/TT K Teetan · J Richards | K Teetan | J Richards | 3 | 4.1 | N |
| 3 | 1 | COLOURFUL PRINCE SR/TT L Ferraris · D J Whyte | L Ferraris | D J Whyte | 10 | 4.3 | N |
| 4 | 11 | GORGEOUS VITALITY B-/TT1 L Hewitson · F C Lor | L Hewitson | F C Lor | 9 | 16.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 12 | MODEST GENTLEMAN B/TT A Badel · C H Yip | A Badel | C H Yip | 4 | 12.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 8 | SUPER SIXTY TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 2 | 12.0 | 2 |
| 7 | 10 | PARENTS' LOVE H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 1 | 5.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 6 | VICTORYTHIRTYTHREE H Bentley · P F Yiu | H Bentley | P F Yiu | 5 | 44.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 9 | OVERSUBSCRIBED XB A Atzeni · D J Hall | A Atzeni | D J Hall | 11 | 34.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 4 | NOTTHESILLYONE B Avdulla · M Newnham | B Avdulla | M Newnham | 8 | 23.0 | 7 |
| 11 | 3 | INNOTECH STAR CP1/TT1 H T Mo · W K Mo | H T Mo | W K Mo | 12 | 127.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 7 | SPICY SPANGLE H1/PC1/XB1 M F Poon · P C Ng | M F Poon | P C Ng | 7 | 90.0 | 8 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | GRAND NOVA | 17.2% | 5.82 | 1 |
| 2 | 10 | PARENTS' LOVE | 14.1% | 7.08 | 7 |
| 3 | 2 | MA COMET | 12.1% | 8.24 | 2 |
| 4 | 12 | MODEST GENTLEMAN | 11.0% | 9.07 | 5 |
| 5 | 8 | SUPER SIXTY | 10.1% | 9.88 | 6 |
| 6 | 11 | GORGEOUS VITALITY | 7.1% | 14.01 | 4 |
| 7 | 1 | COLOURFUL PRINCE | 6.5% | 15.49 | 3 |
| 8 | 9 | OVERSUBSCRIBED | 6.3% | 15.80 | 9 |
| 9 | 4 | NOTTHESILLYONE | 5.7% | 17.55 | 10 |
| 10 | 6 | VICTORYTHIRTYTHREE | 5.1% | 19.52 | 8 |
| 11 | 3 | INNOTECH STAR | 3.1% | 32.76 | 11 |
| 12 | 7 | SPICY SPANGLE | 1.6% | 61.83 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 49
PLACE
1 20
2 15
5 16
QUINELLA
2,5 84.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 47
1,5 51.5
2,5 32.5
FORECAST
5,2 172
TIERCE
5,2,1 522
TRIO
1,2,5 103
FIRST 4
1,2,5,11 501
QUARTET
5,2,1,11 7,504
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,3,6/1,2,5 1,401
2ND DOUBLE
1/2 47
1/5 261.5