Happy Valley · 2024-07-04 · 20:40
Race 5
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | NORTHERN BEAST Closed strongly 1.39.97 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · D J Hall | B Avdulla | D J Hall | 2 | 3.0 | NOSE |
| 2 | 7 | DOUBLE WIN Closed strongly XB/TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 7 | 40.0 | NOSE |
| 3 | 8 | STURDY RUBY Closed strongly TT K Teetan · K L Man | K Teetan | K L Man | 6 | 4.9 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 6 | THE AZURE Closed strongly K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 4 | 28.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 11 | LUCKY BANNER Led early H/TT A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 8 | 15.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 2 | DRAGON STAR B/XB H Bowman · P C Ng | H Bowman | P C Ng | 5 | 5.2 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 12 | MATSU VICTOR Closed strongly B1 C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 9 | 35.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 10 | FOREMOST TEDDY B/TT K H Chan · C S Shum | K H Chan | C S Shum | 1 | 18.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 1 | SNOWALOT Closed strongly B L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 12 | 36.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 3 | D STAR B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 3 | 8.5 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 9 | YEE CHEONG RAIDER B/TT B Thompson · J Richards | B Thompson | J Richards | 10 | 11.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 5 | DARCI JOY B/TT M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 11 | 17.0 | 11-1/2 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2024-07-04 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. NORTHERN BEAST, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by D J Hall, won by NOSE, with DOUBLE WIN second and STURDY RUBY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.0 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | NORTHERN BEAST | 22.3% | 4.48 | 1 |
| 2 | 11 | LUCKY BANNER | 16.6% | 6.03 | 5 |
| 3 | 2 | DRAGON STAR | 12.3% | 8.12 | 6 |
| 4 | 8 | STURDY RUBY | 10.7% | 9.37 | 3 |
| 5 | 10 | FOREMOST TEDDY | 7.3% | 13.75 | 8 |
| 6 | 5 | DARCI JOY | 6.9% | 14.55 | 12 |
| 7 | 1 | SNOWALOT | 6.0% | 16.68 | 9 |
| 8 | 3 | D STAR | 5.7% | 17.54 | 10 |
| 9 | 7 | DOUBLE WIN | 5.3% | 19.03 | 2 |
| 10 | 9 | YEE CHEONG RAIDER | 4.6% | 21.53 | 11 |
| 11 | 6 | THE AZURE | 1.4% | 73.14 | 4 |
| 12 | 12 | MATSU VICTOR | 1.0% | 100.87 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 30.5
PLACE
4 14
7 83
8 18
QUINELLA
4,7 580.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,7 188.5
4,8 32.5
7,8 225
FORECAST
4,7 832
TIERCE
4,7,8 4,980
TRIO
4,7,8 802
FIRST 4
4,6,7,8 4,479
QUARTET
4,7,8,6 72,113
All pools (3 more)
1ST TREBLE
5/2/4 2,359
5/2/7 3,733
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
2,3,4/4,7,8 60,455
4TH DOUBLE
2/4 631
2/7 621