Happy Valley · 2024-07-04 · 12:12
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2024-07-04 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SPICY GOLD, ridden by A Badel and trained by M Newnham, won by 3/4, with GOLDEN RISE second and AURORA LADY third. The 4.2 favourite GOLDEN RISE finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | SPICY GOLD H/TT 1.09.83 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · M Newnham | A Badel | M Newnham | 9 | 10.0 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 4 | GOLDEN RISE H Bowman · J Size | H Bowman | J Size | 6 | 4.2 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 3 | AURORA LADY CP1 K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 10 | 6.4 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 7 | SKY PROPHET TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 11 | 12.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 9 | SPEEDY SMARTIE TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 1 | 6.1 | 4 |
| 6 | 6 | PARTY WARRIOR B/TT K H Chan · C S Shum | K H Chan | C S Shum | 8 | 24.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 11 | MY INTELLIGENT V/TT M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 3 | 5.7 | 5 |
| 8 | 10 | HERCULES B/TT A Atzeni · C H Yip | A Atzeni | C H Yip | 5 | 34.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 1 | HAPPY TRIO B L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 12 | 40.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 8 | CIRCUIT SEVEN B/TT M F Poon · W K Mo | M F Poon | W K Mo | 2 | 10.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 12 | COLONEL V H T Mo · P F Yiu | H T Mo | P F Yiu | 7 | 18.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 12 | 5 | RACINGRACE XB L Ferraris · D J Hall | L Ferraris | D J Hall | 4 | 16.0 | 10-3/4 |
| — | 0 | CALIFORNIA CIBLE Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | AURORA LADY | 13.9% | 7.19 | 3 |
| 2 | 4 | GOLDEN RISE | 12.9% | 7.75 | 2 |
| 3 | 9 | SPEEDY SMARTIE | 11.4% | 8.75 | 5 |
| 4 | 11 | MY INTELLIGENT | 10.6% | 9.40 | 7 |
| 5 | 8 | CIRCUIT SEVEN | 10.3% | 9.67 | 10 |
| 6 | 2 | SPICY GOLD | 9.4% | 10.67 | 1 |
| 7 | 6 | PARTY WARRIOR | 7.4% | 13.54 | 6 |
| 8 | 10 | HERCULES | 5.5% | 18.11 | 8 |
| 9 | 12 | COLONEL | 5.1% | 19.67 | 11 |
| 10 | 1 | HAPPY TRIO | 5.0% | 20.07 | 9 |
| 11 | 5 | RACINGRACE | 4.5% | 22.35 | 12 |
| 12 | 7 | SKY PROPHET | 4.0% | 25.24 | 4 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 103.5
PLACE
2 35
3 27.5
4 16.5
QUINELLA
2,4 229.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 133
2,4 90
3,4 61.5
FORECAST
2,4 516
TIERCE
2,4,3 3,372
TRIO
2,3,4 522
FIRST 4
2,3,4,7 1,443
QUARTET
2,4,3,7 38,578
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
5/2 560.5
5/4 21