Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2024-07-04 · 13:12

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1800m Course A 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2024-07-04 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. JOY OF SPRING, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C Fownes, won by 1-1/4, with ME TIME second and FOREVER GLORIOUS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.0 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.48.94
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 JOY OF SPRING Closed strongly TT 1.48.94 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C Fownes 5 3.0 1-1/4
2 12 ME TIME Closed strongly SR-/CP1/TT A Badel · D J Whyte 3 14.0 1-1/4
3 5 FOREVER GLORIOUS V/TT K Teetan · K W Lui 8 16.0 1-1/2
4 6 PRECISE EXPRESS Closed strongly H A Atzeni · P F Yiu 1 8.2 2-1/4
5 2 SERANGOON Closed strongly CP/TT H Bentley · A S Cruz 2 4.2 3-1/2
6 7 PEGASUS GENERAL Closed strongly V Y L Chung · K H Ting 7 20.0 4-1/4
7 11 SPECIAL HEDGE B/TT L Hewitson · T P Yung 4 8.6 7
8 4 SATIRICAL GLORY Led early H Bowman · D A Hayes 12 9.5 7
9 8 SUPER HONG KONG Closed strongly B C L Chau · C H Yip 10 31.0 7
10 10 PALACE PAL Closed strongly V M F Poon · D J Hall 11 33.0 8-1/2
11 1 INTREPID WINNER B K De Melo · C W Chang 9 22.0 9-1/4
12 9 LEGION OF MERIT B/TT B Thompson · W Y So 6 47.0 24-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. JOY OF SPRING2. ME TIME+1.25L3. FOREVER GLORIOUS+1.5L4. PRECISE EXPRESS+2.25L5. SERANGOON+3.5L6. PEGASUS GENERAL+4.25L7. SPECIAL HEDGE+7L8. SATIRICAL GLORY+7L9. SUPER HONG KONG+7L10. PALACE PAL+8.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick JOY OF SPRING (28.7%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 JOY OF SPRING 28.7% 3.48 1
2 6 PRECISE EXPRESS 10.0% 9.96 4
3 5 FOREVER GLORIOUS 9.7% 10.28 3
4 4 SATIRICAL GLORY 9.7% 10.34 8
5 2 SERANGOON 8.1% 12.40 5
6 11 SPECIAL HEDGE 7.3% 13.68 7
7 12 ME TIME 5.7% 17.59 2
8 10 PALACE PAL 5.6% 17.88 10
9 9 LEGION OF MERIT 4.4% 22.77 12
10 1 INTREPID WINNER 4.1% 24.53 11
11 8 SUPER HONG KONG 3.8% 26.24 9
12 7 PEGASUS GENERAL 2.9% 34.43 6
JOY OF SPRING — wonPRECISE EXPRESSFOREVER GLORIOUSSATIRICAL GLORYSERANGOONSPECIAL HEDGEME TIMEPALACE PALLEGION OF MERITINTREPID WINNERSUPER HONG KONGPEGASUS GENERAL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 30.5

PLACE

3 14

5 39

12 38.5

QUINELLA

3,12 238.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 90.5

3,12 84

5,12 279.5

FORECAST

3,12 373

TIERCE

3,12,5 5,119

TRIO

3,5,12 1,091

FIRST 4

3,5,6,12 1,969

QUARTET

3,12,5,6 31,770

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

4/3 130.5

4/12 113.5