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Sha Tin · 2024-07-06 · 08:02

Race 1

Griffin GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2024-07-06 was Griffin over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SANTORINI, ridden by K Teetan and trained by F C Lor, won by SH, with KARATE EXPRESS second and CALIFORNIA BANNER third. The 2.3 favourite KARATE EXPRESS finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.65
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 SANTORINI CP 1.09.65 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · F C Lor 1 4.4 SH
2 1 KARATE EXPRESS L Hewitson · K W Lui 4 2.3 SH
3 2 CALIFORNIA BANNER CP/TT Y L Chung · W K Mo 11 138.0 1/2
4 9 KA YING RESILIENCE TT Z Purton · D A Hayes 10 3.4 1/2
5 10 PATCH OF COSMO L Ferraris · K L Man 8 11.0 1-1/2
6 3 CALIFORNIA MOXIE CP/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 7 14.0 1-1/2
7 12 SUPREME WINNER A Badel · C H Yip 3 139.0 3
8 7 CASHISCASH CP1/XB1 M Chadwick · D J Whyte 6 44.0 4-1/2
9 6 ALWAYS MY FOLKS B Thompson · C W Chang 5 30.0 4-3/4
10 8 GOOD PROSPECT XB1 K C Leung · T P Yung 9 90.0 5
11 11 SMILING EMPEROR CP-/B1 H Bentley · K H Ting 2 46.0 5-3/4
12 5 SMART ZIPANG B/TT M L Yeung · W Y So 12 166.0 6

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SANTORINI2. KARATE EXPRESS+0.1L3. CALIFORNIA BANNER+0.5L4. KA YING RESILIENCE+0.5L5. PATCH OF COSMO+1.5L6. CALIFORNIA MOXIE+1.5L7. SUPREME WINNER+3L8. CASHISCASH+4.5L9. ALWAYS MY FOLKS+4.75L10. GOOD PROSPECT+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick KA YING RESILIENCE (26.3%) finished 4th — the winner SANTORINI was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 KA YING RESILIENCE 26.3% 3.80 4
2 1 KARATE EXPRESS 22.6% 4.43 2
3 4 SANTORINI 21.3% 4.69 1
4 10 PATCH OF COSMO 7.7% 12.91 5
5 3 CALIFORNIA MOXIE 7.2% 13.81 6
6 7 CASHISCASH 4.9% 20.57 8
7 8 GOOD PROSPECT 4.2% 23.83 10
8 2 CALIFORNIA BANNER 1.6% 63.46 3
9 11 SMILING EMPEROR 1.5% 65.34 11
10 6 ALWAYS MY FOLKS 1.5% 66.21 9
11 12 SUPREME WINNER 0.7% 140.66 7
12 5 SMART ZIPANG 0.5% 218.53 12
KA YING RESILIENCEKARATE EXPRESSSANTORINI — wonPATCH OF COSMOCALIFORNIA MOXIECASHISCASHGOOD PROSPECTCALIFORNIA BANNERSMILING EMPERORALWAYS MY FOLKSSUPREME WINNERSMART ZIPANG

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 44.5

PLACE

1 12

2 258

4 14

QUINELLA

1,4 47

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 571

1,4 19

2,4 559.5

FORECAST

4,1 121

TIERCE

4,1,2 6,980

TRIO

1,2,4 1,563

FIRST 4

1,2,4,9 577

QUARTET

4,1,2,9 19,562