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Sha Tin · 2024-07-06 · 10:37

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1600m Course C 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2024-07-06 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. MISSION VOICE, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by M Newnham, won by N, with CHATER GOLD second and SUPER UNICORN third. The winner led throughout. The 3.0 favourite LUCKY TOUCH finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.34.00
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 MISSION VOICE Wire to wire B 1.34.00 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · M Newnham 9 10.0 N
2 14 CHATER GOLD Closed strongly CP H Bentley · D A Hayes 3 31.0 N
3 10 SUPER UNICORN Closed strongly H-/TT K Teetan · F C Lor 1 8.9 1-3/4
4 13 INVINCIBLE MISSILE Closed strongly XB A Badel · C Fownes 2 8.3 3
5 8 MEEPMEEP Closed strongly B/E/TT B Avdulla · J Size 13 21.0 3-1/2
6 5 LET'S DO IT Closed strongly CP H Bowman · D J Hall 7 15.0 4
7 7 TRADITION Closed strongly M F Poon · P C Ng 8 28.0 4
8 6 LUCKY TOUCH B/TT Z Purton · J Richards 14 3.0 4-1/2
9 4 ONLY U Closed strongly B/TT L Hewitson · T P Yung 11 31.0 4-1/2
10 12 JOYFUL PROSPERITY Closed strongly CP-/B1 A Atzeni · C W Chang 10 8.2 5
11 2 COMING PATCH C Y Ho · K H Ting 5 8.7 5-1/4
12 3 LAUGH TALE TT K C Leung · K L Man 6 15.0 6-1/2
13 9 PRINCE ALEX CP/XB/TT M Chadwick · D J Whyte 12 48.0 8-1/4
14 1 WAH MAY WAI WAI H- Y L Chung · A S Cruz 4 54.0 13

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MISSION VOICE2. CHATER GOLD+0.05L3. SUPER UNICORN+1.75L4. INVINCIBLE MISSILE+3L5. MEEPMEEP+3.5L6. LET'S DO IT+4L7. TRADITION+4L8. LUCKY TOUCH+4.5L9. ONLY U+4.5L10. JOYFUL PROSPERITY+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick LUCKY TOUCH (18.2%) finished 8th — the winner MISSION VOICE was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 LUCKY TOUCH 18.2% 5.49 8
2 13 INVINCIBLE MISSILE 13.4% 7.47 4
3 12 JOYFUL PROSPERITY 11.2% 8.95 10
4 10 SUPER UNICORN 10.4% 9.64 3
5 5 LET'S DO IT 9.9% 10.06 6
6 2 COMING PATCH 7.4% 13.44 11
7 8 MEEPMEEP 5.7% 17.58 5
8 9 PRINCE ALEX 4.8% 20.80 13
9 3 LAUGH TALE 4.6% 21.68 12
10 11 MISSION VOICE 4.0% 24.76 1
11 14 CHATER GOLD 3.2% 31.18 2
12 4 ONLY U 3.1% 31.77 9
13 7 TRADITION 3.0% 33.08 7
14 1 WAH MAY WAI WAI 0.9% 107.63 14
LUCKY TOUCHINVINCIBLE MISSILEJOYFUL PROSPERITYSUPER UNICORNLET'S DO ITCOMING PATCHMEEPMEEPPRINCE ALEXLAUGH TALEMISSION VOICE — wonCHATER GOLDONLY UTRADITIONWAH MAY WAI WAI

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 102

PLACE

10 27.5

11 36

14 59.5

QUINELLA

11,14 1,265

QUINELLA PLACE

10,11 146.5

10,14 254.5

11,14 438

FORECAST

11,14 2,546

TIERCE

11,14,10 25,212

TRIO

10,11,14 3,918

FIRST 4

10,11,13,14 6,091

QUARTET

11,14,10,13 165,007

All pools (3 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,4,12/10,11,14 379,923

5TH DOUBLE

4/11 836.5

4/14 201

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

6,8,11/2,4,12/Any Combination 72,332