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Sha Tin · 2024-07-06 · 11:07

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course C 13 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2024-07-06 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. BEAUTY FIT, ridden by H Bowman and trained by J Size, won by 1/2, with HASTEN DELIGHT second and SUNLIGHT POWER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.4 favourite SUNLIGHT POWER finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.21.40
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 BEAUTY FIT Closed strongly E/P 1.21.40 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · J Size 4 9.6 1/2
2 1 HASTEN DELIGHT Led early B/TT L Ferraris · K W Lui 11 15.0 1/2
3 3 SUNLIGHT POWER Closed strongly CP/H A Hamelin · P F Yiu 7 4.4 3/4
4 10 SUPER GOLDI Closed strongly TT Z Purton · F C Lor 1 5.4 1-1/2
5 7 TURIN STARSPANGLED TT1 A Atzeni · P C Ng 8 62.0 2-1/2
6 2 FIND MY LOVE Closed strongly TT M L Yeung · K L Man 5 37.0 4
6 11 SWEET BRIAR V/TT L Hewitson · K W Lui 9 9.8 4
8 13 OUR LUCKY GLORY TT H Bentley · W Y So 3 34.0 4
9 8 FANTASTIC FUN XB/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 2 8.1 6
10 9 LESLIE Closed strongly K Teetan · C W Chang 10 18.0 6-1/2
11 4 BEAUTY GLORY CP/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 13 23.0 7-1/2
12 12 THUNDER BLINK Closed strongly M Chadwick · K H Ting 6 4.4 8
13 6 MAJESTIC COLOUR B/TT K C Leung · D A Hayes 12 68.0 9-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BEAUTY FIT2. HASTEN DELIGHT+0.5L3. SUNLIGHT POWER+0.75L4. SUPER GOLDI+1.5L5. TURIN STARSPANGLED+2.5L6. FIND MY LOVE+4L6. SWEET BRIAR+4L8. OUR LUCKY GLORY+4L9. FANTASTIC FUN+6L10. LESLIE+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick THUNDER BLINK (23.2%) finished 12th — the winner BEAUTY FIT was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 12 THUNDER BLINK 23.2% 4.31 12
2 10 SUPER GOLDI 21.7% 4.61 4
3 8 FANTASTIC FUN 9.4% 10.67 9
4 3 SUNLIGHT POWER 8.6% 11.63 3
5 1 HASTEN DELIGHT 8.3% 12.05 2
6 5 BEAUTY FIT 8.1% 12.28 1
7 11 SWEET BRIAR 6.1% 16.33 6
8 9 LESLIE 4.6% 21.72 10
9 13 OUR LUCKY GLORY 3.6% 28.06 8
10 4 BEAUTY GLORY 2.0% 50.24 11
11 6 MAJESTIC COLOUR 1.9% 52.89 13
12 2 FIND MY LOVE 1.6% 63.43 6
13 7 TURIN STARSPANGLED 0.9% 107.35 5
THUNDER BLINKSUPER GOLDIFANTASTIC FUNSUNLIGHT POWERHASTEN DELIGHTBEAUTY FIT — wonSWEET BRIARLESLIEOUR LUCKY GLORYBEAUTY GLORYMAJESTIC COLOURFIND MY LOVETURIN STARSPANGLED

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 96.5

PLACE

1 53.5

3 17

5 27.5

QUINELLA

1,5 669.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 120

1,5 192

3,5 71

FORECAST

5,1 1,475

TIERCE

5,1,3 7,625

TRIO

1,3,5 1,006

FIRST 4

1,3,5,10 1,084

QUARTET

5,1,3,10 34,363

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

11/1 494

11/5 1,536.5