Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2024-07-06 · 09:07

Race 3

Class 5 GOOD TO FIRM 1600m Course C 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2024-07-06 was Class 5 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SMART BEAUTY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by A S Cruz, won by NOSE, with DIAMOND WINNER second and CHARMANDER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.34.69
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 SMART BEAUTY Closed strongly B/H/TT 1.34.69 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · A S Cruz 3 2.4 NOSE
2 14 DIAMOND WINNER Closed strongly B Thompson · J Size 7 47.0 NOSE
3 8 CHARMANDER V1 K De Melo · D J Hall 6 5.6 1/2
4 6 MEDIC ELITE Closed strongly PC/TT C Y Ho · P C Ng 10 9.7 2
5 12 STAR OF GLORY Closed strongly B M F Poon · C W Chang 5 14.0 3
6 9 HAPPY HUNK CP/TT M Chadwick · K L Man 2 34.0 3-3/4
7 10 SUPERB DADDY Closed strongly TT2 K Teetan · Y S Tsui 13 13.0 5-3/4
8 4 BULB PRINCE H/CP1/TT B Avdulla · C H Yip 1 41.0 6
9 2 PAKISTAN FRIEND Closed strongly P/TT H Bentley · W Y So 14 38.0 6-3/4
10 13 FOXHUNTER WAY Led early H T Mo · K W Lui 11 36.0 6-3/4
11 5 ASIAN ONE B/XB/TT H Bowman · J Richards 4 17.0 6-3/4
12 11 GENERAL WINNER CP/TT A Atzeni · D J Whyte 12 16.0 8
13 3 JOYFUL FRIENDSHIP B A Hamelin · P F Yiu 9 9.4 8-1/4
14 7 DIAMOND DIAMOND B/TT- L Hewitson · T P Yung 8 48.0 13-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SMART BEAUTY2. DIAMOND WINNER+0.05L3. CHARMANDER+0.5L4. MEDIC ELITE+2L5. STAR OF GLORY+3L6. HAPPY HUNK+3.75L7. SUPERB DADDY+5.75L8. BULB PRINCE+6L9. PAKISTAN FRIEND+6.75L10. FOXHUNTER WAY+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick SMART BEAUTY (26.3%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 SMART BEAUTY 26.3% 3.80 1
2 11 GENERAL WINNER 10.2% 9.76 12
3 6 MEDIC ELITE 9.2% 10.93 4
4 8 CHARMANDER 8.2% 12.20 3
5 5 ASIAN ONE 8.2% 12.24 11
6 3 JOYFUL FRIENDSHIP 7.8% 12.84 13
7 12 STAR OF GLORY 6.7% 15.01 5
8 9 HAPPY HUNK 6.2% 16.15 6
9 13 FOXHUNTER WAY 4.4% 22.97 10
10 4 BULB PRINCE 3.3% 30.36 8
11 10 SUPERB DADDY 3.2% 30.86 7
12 2 PAKISTAN FRIEND 3.2% 31.50 9
13 14 DIAMOND WINNER 1.9% 51.94 2
14 7 DIAMOND DIAMOND 1.3% 77.06 14
SMART BEAUTY — wonGENERAL WINNERMEDIC ELITECHARMANDERASIAN ONEJOYFUL FRIENDSHIPSTAR OF GLORYHAPPY HUNKFOXHUNTER WAYBULB PRINCESUPERB DADDYPAKISTAN FRIENDDIAMOND WINNERDIAMOND DIAMOND

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 24

PLACE

1 13

8 21

14 99.5

QUINELLA

1,14 637.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,8 38

1,14 207

8,14 320.5

FORECAST

1,14 835

TIERCE

1,14,8 5,309

TRIO

1,8,14 865

FIRST 4

1,6,8,14 1,707

QUARTET

1,14,8,6 38,040

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

6/1 629.5

6/14 806.5