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Sha Tin · 2024-07-06 · 20:13

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course C 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.11
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 KING MILES Closed strongly 1.21.11 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 1 4.1 1/2
2 5 THE WINNABE Closed strongly H Bowman · J Size 5 1.6 1/2
3 2 GRACIOUS EXPRESS Closed strongly CP B Avdulla · P F Yiu 3 15.0 3/4
4 6 GIDDY UP Closed strongly P-/TT A Hamelin · J Richards 2 17.0 2-1/4
5 4 NOT USUAL STAR Closed strongly H/TT K Teetan · W Y So 13 59.0 3
6 13 HIGHLAND RAHY Led early TT M L Yeung · K W Lui 12 134.0 3-1/4
7 7 MOJAVE DESERT Closed strongly CP1 L Hewitson · D A Hayes 11 61.0 4
8 8 GALVANIC Closed strongly TT A Badel · C Fownes 6 54.0 4-3/4
9 10 HARMONY GALAXY Closed strongly TT M F Poon · C S Shum 8 124.0 6-3/4
10 1 LOVERO TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 9 38.0 8
11 11 MIGHTY STEED M Chadwick · K W Lui 4 81.0 9
12 12 GREENWICH TT A Atzeni · P C Ng 10 7.8 11-3/4
13 3 SILVER KING H/TT K C Leung · F C Lor 7 79.0 18-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2024-07-06 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. KING MILES, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 1/2, with THE WINNABE second and GRACIOUS EXPRESS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.6 favourite THE WINNABE finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KING MILES—2. THE WINNABE+0.5L3. GRACIOUS EXPRESS+0.75L4. GIDDY UP+2.25L5. NOT USUAL STAR+3L6. HIGHLAND RAHY+3.25L7. MOJAVE DESERT+4L8. GALVANIC+4.75L9. HARMONY GALAXY+6.75L10. LOVERO+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick KING MILES (35.6%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 KING MILES 35.6% 2.81 1
2 5 THE WINNABE 32.6% 3.07 2
3 12 GREENWICH 6.3% 15.91 12
4 8 GALVANIC 6.1% 16.41 8
5 2 GRACIOUS EXPRESS 5.7% 17.53 3
6 6 GIDDY UP 4.6% 21.64 4
7 4 NOT USUAL STAR 2.0% 49.81 5
8 11 MIGHTY STEED 2.0% 50.52 11
9 1 LOVERO 1.8% 54.46 10
10 7 MOJAVE DESERT 1.3% 74.80 7
11 10 HARMONY GALAXY 0.7% 137.26 9
12 3 SILVER KING 0.7% 138.21 13
13 13 HIGHLAND RAHY 0.5% 206.66 6
KING MILES — wonTHE WINNABEGREENWICHGALVANICGRACIOUS EXPRESSGIDDY UPNOT USUAL STARMIGHTY STEEDLOVEROMOJAVE DESERTHARMONY GALAXYSILVER KINGHIGHLAND RAHY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 41.5

PLACE

2 26

5 11.5

9 13

QUINELLA

5,9 26.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 35

2,9 47.5

5,9 15.5

FORECAST

9,5 90

TIERCE

9,5,2 355

TRIO

2,5,9 66

FIRST 4

2,5,6,9 123

QUARTET

9,5,2,6 1,998

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

8/5 22

8/9 173