Happy Valley · 2024-07-10 · 19:36
Race 3
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | BRAVE WITNESS Closed strongly CP/TT 1.39.97 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · C S Shum | K Teetan | C S Shum | 1 | 3.4 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 12 | MATSU VICTOR Closed strongly B Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 7 | 4.1 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 7 | WINNING STEPS Closed strongly H/PC A Hamelin · P C Ng | A Hamelin | P C Ng | 9 | 10.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 9 | GALLANT CROWN B/TT A Atzeni · D A Hayes | A Atzeni | D A Hayes | 12 | 14.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 8 | SUPER BABY Led early B/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 3 | 9.5 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 6 | ATOMIC BEAUTY V/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 4 | 6.3 | 2 |
| 7 | 3 | DURHAM STAR Closed strongly SR/XB M Chadwick · D J Whyte | M Chadwick | D J Whyte | 6 | 26.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 4 | SOLAR GOGO B- C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 2 | 26.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 2 | CORDYCEPS ONE Closed strongly E C W Wong · C H Yip | E C W Wong | C H Yip | 5 | 25.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 10 | DIVINE SHINING Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 11 | 27.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 11 | 5 | TURIN WARRIOR B/XB K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 10 | 18.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 12 | 1 | CITY THUNDER TT H Bentley · W Y So | H Bentley | W Y So | 8 | 23.0 | 20-1/2 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2024-07-10 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. BRAVE WITNESS, ridden by K Teetan and trained by C S Shum, won by 3/4, with MATSU VICTOR second and WINNING STEPS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.4 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | BRAVE WITNESS | 42.9% | 2.33 | 1 |
| 2 | 8 | SUPER BABY | 12.5% | 8.03 | 5 |
| 3 | 6 | ATOMIC BEAUTY | 8.5% | 11.71 | 6 |
| 4 | 12 | MATSU VICTOR | 6.8% | 14.63 | 2 |
| 5 | 9 | GALLANT CROWN | 5.7% | 17.46 | 4 |
| 6 | 3 | DURHAM STAR | 4.1% | 24.65 | 7 |
| 7 | 1 | CITY THUNDER | 3.8% | 26.09 | 12 |
| 8 | 5 | TURIN WARRIOR | 3.8% | 26.52 | 11 |
| 9 | 7 | WINNING STEPS | 3.7% | 27.02 | 3 |
| 10 | 10 | DIVINE SHINING | 3.6% | 28.06 | 10 |
| 11 | 4 | SOLAR GOGO | 2.6% | 38.42 | 8 |
| 12 | 2 | CORDYCEPS ONE | 2.0% | 50.28 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 34
PLACE
7 28
11 14.5
12 18
QUINELLA
11,12 76.5
QUINELLA PLACE
7,11 62.5
7,12 76.5
11,12 33
FORECAST
11,12 153
TIERCE
11,12,7 848
TRIO
7,11,12 242
FIRST 4
7,9,11,12 736
QUARTET
11,12,7,9 8,967
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
6,7,12/7,11,12 4,558
2ND DOUBLE
12/11 144
12/12 40