Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2024-07-10 · 13:37

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2024-07-10 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. PRINCE OF PORTY, ridden by H Bowman and trained by D J Hall, won by N, with STRIVE FOR GLORY second and CHARITY FOR ALL third. Victory came as the 2.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.80
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 PRINCE OF PORTY CP-/B1/TT 1.09.80 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · D J Hall 1 2.2 N
2 11 STRIVE FOR GLORY P/TT A Badel · W Y So 2 29.0 N
3 5 CHARITY FOR ALL TT B Avdulla · C S Shum 8 25.0 3-1/4
4 2 NEBRASKAN PC Z Purton · J Size 11 7.8 3-3/4
5 4 LEAN MASTER B/TT H Bentley · C H Yip 7 5.2 4-1/4
6 1 BULB EMPEROR B A Atzeni · P C Ng 6 21.0 4-3/4
7 8 GIMME FIVE K Teetan · F C Lor 10 9.8 5-1/4
8 6 CAMP FIRE H/TT M Chadwick · D J Whyte 4 16.0 5-3/4
9 12 LAPRAS CP2/TT K De Melo · W K Mo 5 25.0 7
10 7 PERFECTO MOMENTS CP L Ferraris · K H Ting 12 65.0 9-1/4
11 9 HAPPY HORSE H/P/TT Y L Chung · K L Man 9 30.0 9-1/2
12 10 FANCY STAR PC/TT B Thompson · C Fownes 3 13.0 16-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PRINCE OF PORTY2. STRIVE FOR GLORY+0.05L3. CHARITY FOR ALL+3.25L4. NEBRASKAN+3.75L5. LEAN MASTER+4.25L6. BULB EMPEROR+4.75L7. GIMME FIVE+5.25L8. CAMP FIRE+5.75L9. LAPRAS+7L10. PERFECTO MOMENTS+9.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick LEAN MASTER (18.5%) finished 5th — the winner PRINCE OF PORTY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 LEAN MASTER 18.5% 5.40 5
2 3 PRINCE OF PORTY 16.9% 5.92 1
3 2 NEBRASKAN 14.2% 7.03 4
4 8 GIMME FIVE 12.8% 7.80 7
5 9 HAPPY HORSE 11.2% 8.90 11
6 12 LAPRAS 7.3% 13.75 9
7 11 STRIVE FOR GLORY 6.4% 15.58 2
8 6 CAMP FIRE 4.5% 22.38 8
9 10 FANCY STAR 3.1% 32.76 12
10 7 PERFECTO MOMENTS 2.6% 38.45 10
11 5 CHARITY FOR ALL 1.3% 77.02 3
12 1 BULB EMPEROR 1.2% 85.12 6
LEAN MASTERPRINCE OF PORTY — wonNEBRASKANGIMME FIVEHAPPY HORSELAPRASSTRIVE FOR GLORYCAMP FIREFANCY STARPERFECTO MOMENTSCHARITY FOR ALLBULB EMPEROR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 22.5

PLACE

3 11.5

5 70.5

11 54

QUINELLA

3,11 271.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 107.5

3,11 100.5

5,11 720.5

FORECAST

3,11 367

TIERCE

3,11,5 4,811

TRIO

3,5,11 1,588

FIRST 4

2,3,5,11 3,271

QUARTET

3,11,5,2 52,356

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

5,6,9/3,5,11 231,502

6TH DOUBLE

9/3 374.5

9/11 526

TRIPLE TRIO

2,5,9/5,6,9/3,5,11 3,837,302

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,5,9/5,6,9/Any Combination 649