Happy Valley · 2024-07-10 · 12:07
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2024-07-10 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. LUCKY PLANET, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by D J Whyte, won by 2-1/4, with SIGHT HERO second and HAROLD WIN third. Victory came as the 2.6 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | LUCKY PLANET B/TT 1.09.17 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · D J Whyte | M Chadwick | D J Whyte | 1 | 2.6 | 2-1/4 |
| 2 | 5 | SIGHT HERO B/TT B Thompson · D A Hayes | B Thompson | D A Hayes | 5 | 9.9 | 2-1/4 |
| 3 | 4 | HAROLD WIN B/XB A Atzeni · K W Lui | A Atzeni | K W Lui | 4 | 3.0 | 4 |
| 4 | 1 | BOWSER H1/TT B Avdulla · P F Yiu | B Avdulla | P F Yiu | 10 | 34.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 5 | 8 | VALHALLA XB/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 3 | 10.0 | 10 |
| 6 | 7 | SKYEY BLUE B2 Y L Chung · K L Man | Y L Chung | K L Man | 2 | 118.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 7 | 11 | GOLDEN CHAMPION CP/TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 8 | 36.0 | 11 |
| 8 | 9 | WOOD ON FIRE V/TT K C Leung · C W Chang | K C Leung | C W Chang | 9 | 40.0 | 11 |
| 9 | 10 | YODA'S CHOICE PC/TT K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 7 | 8.7 | 11-3/4 |
| 10 | 3 | AMAZING ACE TT Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 6 | 16.0 | 14-3/4 |
| 11 | 6 | CIRCUIT TEN H/P/TT M L Yeung · W K Mo | M L Yeung | W K Mo | 11 | 83.0 | 16-3/4 |
| 12 | 2 | ERNEST FEELING B/TT A Hamelin · J Richards | A Hamelin | J Richards | 12 | 32.0 | 23-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | LUCKY PLANET | 23.0% | 4.34 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | HAROLD WIN | 21.7% | 4.61 | 3 |
| 3 | 8 | VALHALLA | 13.7% | 7.31 | 5 |
| 4 | 10 | YODA'S CHOICE | 9.8% | 10.24 | 9 |
| 5 | 3 | AMAZING ACE | 8.9% | 11.21 | 10 |
| 6 | 11 | GOLDEN CHAMPION | 5.4% | 18.39 | 7 |
| 7 | 5 | SIGHT HERO | 4.7% | 21.22 | 2 |
| 8 | 1 | BOWSER | 4.5% | 22.45 | 4 |
| 9 | 9 | WOOD ON FIRE | 3.4% | 29.43 | 8 |
| 10 | 2 | ERNEST FEELING | 3.0% | 33.28 | 12 |
| 11 | 6 | CIRCUIT TEN | 1.3% | 77.40 | 11 |
| 12 | 7 | SKYEY BLUE | 0.6% | 159.58 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 26.5
PLACE
4 13.5
5 24
12 13
QUINELLA
5,12 115.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 53.5
4,12 20
5,12 42
FORECAST
12,5 192
TIERCE
12,5,4 548
TRIO
4,5,12 105
FIRST 4
1,4,5,12 585
QUARTET
12,5,4,1 9,608
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
11/5 57.5
11/12 83