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Happy Valley · 2024-07-10 · 13:06

Race 6

Class 2 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course B 10 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2024-07-10 was Class 2 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. WOODFIRE BRO, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by C W Chang, won by 1-1/2, with YELLOWFIN second and CHILL CHIBI third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.7 favourite CHILL CHIBI finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.37.90
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 WOODFIRE BRO Closed strongly TT 1.37.90 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · C W Chang 1 11.0 1-1/2
2 6 YELLOWFIN XB A Atzeni · K W Lui 8 7.2 1-1/2
3 5 CHILL CHIBI Closed strongly TT C L Chau · C S Shum 3 3.7 2-1/2
4 1 HELENE FEELING CP/TT H Bowman · C S Shum 6 8.3 3
5 8 TURIN MASCOT Closed strongly PC/TT C Y Ho · P C Ng 5 10.0 3-3/4
6 10 UNIVERSAL HORIZON B M F Poon · K W Lui 2 18.0 4
7 7 BERLIN TANGO Closed strongly B/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 7 15.0 4
8 3 OUTGATE H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 10 5.1 6
9 4 ADEFILL B K Teetan · P F Yiu 9 23.0 8
10 2 TOMODACHI KOKOROE Led early TT Z Purton · D A Hayes 4 7.0 9

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WOODFIRE BRO2. YELLOWFIN+1.5L3. CHILL CHIBI+2.5L4. HELENE FEELING+3L5. TURIN MASCOT+3.75L6. UNIVERSAL HORIZON+4L7. BERLIN TANGO+4L8. OUTGATE+6L9. ADEFILL+8L10. TOMODACHI KOKOROE+9L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick TOMODACHI KOKOROE (15.8%) finished 10th — the winner WOODFIRE BRO was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 TOMODACHI KOKOROE 15.8% 6.31 10
2 5 CHILL CHIBI 14.1% 7.10 3
3 4 ADEFILL 11.9% 8.40 9
4 1 HELENE FEELING 10.6% 9.47 4
5 8 TURIN MASCOT 10.4% 9.59 5
6 6 YELLOWFIN 8.6% 11.63 2
7 10 UNIVERSAL HORIZON 8.1% 12.36 6
8 3 OUTGATE 8.0% 12.47 8
9 7 BERLIN TANGO 6.4% 15.53 7
10 9 WOODFIRE BRO 6.0% 16.57 1
TOMODACHI KOKOROECHILL CHIBIADEFILLHELENE FEELINGTURIN MASCOTYELLOWFINUNIVERSAL HORIZONOUTGATEBERLIN TANGOWOODFIRE BRO — won

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 114.5

PLACE

5 16

6 21.5

9 41

QUINELLA

6,9 490.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 55

5,9 97.5

6,9 166

FORECAST

9,6 1,181

TIERCE

9,6,5 5,088

TRIO

5,6,9 682

FIRST 4

1,5,6,9 1,122

QUARTET

9,6,5,1 34,362

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

9/6 43

9/9 568.5