Happy Valley · 2024-07-10 · 14:54
Race 9
Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2024-07-10 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. FLAMINGO TRILLION, ridden by K C Leung and trained by F C Lor, won by NOSE, with ROMANTIC LAOS second and HAMERON third. The winner led throughout. The 3.6 favourite SUPREME AGILITY finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | FLAMINGO TRILLION Wire to wire 1.48.88 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 9 | 11.0 | NOSE |
| 2 | 7 | ROMANTIC LAOS Closed strongly TT H Bowman · W K Mo | H Bowman | W K Mo | 7 | 6.4 | NOSE |
| 3 | 2 | HAMERON Closed strongly TT L Ferraris · K W Lui | L Ferraris | K W Lui | 2 | 7.6 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 1 | AWESOME FLUKE P/TT A Atzeni · P F Yiu | A Atzeni | P F Yiu | 3 | 6.1 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 3 | SUPREME AGILITY Closed strongly Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 5 | 3.6 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 6 | PERFECT TEAM Closed strongly H/P/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 1 | 15.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 8 | SAMARKAND Closed strongly CP/TT C L Chau · D A Hayes | C L Chau | D A Hayes | 6 | 9.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 12 | G LINER H/P/XB/TT H Bentley · J Richards | H Bentley | J Richards | 4 | 22.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 11 | ESCAPE ROUTE H M F Poon · J Size | M F Poon | J Size | 11 | 29.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 10 | ROMANTIC CHARM V/TT K Teetan · C S Shum | K Teetan | C S Shum | 10 | 13.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 9 | IVY LEAGUE SR/XB/TT K De Melo · D J Whyte | K De Melo | D J Whyte | 12 | 23.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 12 | 4 | RISING FROM ASHES B/TT A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 8 | 35.0 | 63-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | PERFECT TEAM | 23.1% | 4.33 | 6 |
| 2 | 1 | AWESOME FLUKE | 14.2% | 7.04 | 4 |
| 3 | 3 | SUPREME AGILITY | 12.4% | 8.05 | 5 |
| 4 | 8 | SAMARKAND | 8.2% | 12.13 | 7 |
| 5 | 5 | FLAMINGO TRILLION | 8.1% | 12.39 | 1 |
| 6 | 10 | ROMANTIC CHARM | 7.6% | 13.24 | 10 |
| 7 | 7 | ROMANTIC LAOS | 7.3% | 13.67 | 2 |
| 8 | 12 | G LINER | 6.8% | 14.78 | 8 |
| 9 | 2 | HAMERON | 5.8% | 17.10 | 3 |
| 10 | 9 | IVY LEAGUE | 3.0% | 32.90 | 11 |
| 11 | 11 | ESCAPE ROUTE | 1.8% | 55.43 | 9 |
| 12 | 4 | RISING FROM ASHES | 1.6% | 61.01 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 117.5
PLACE
2 24
5 33
7 23.5
QUINELLA
5,7 338
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 159.5
2,7 96.5
5,7 117.5
FORECAST
5,7 632
TIERCE
5,7,2 4,114
TRIO
2,5,7 649
FIRST 4
1,2,5,7 612
QUARTET
5,7,2,1 15,212
All pools (4 more)
2ND TREBLE
3/5/5 10,354
3/5/7 1,249
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
3,5,7/2,5,7 13,984
8TH DOUBLE
5/5 2,242.5
5/7 254.5
SIX UP
5,12/2,9/6,9/3,11/5,7/5,7 8,492
12/9/9/3/5/5 1,526,662
5 [M Chadwick] —
5 [D J Whyte] —