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Happy Valley · 2024-07-10 · 14:54

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1800m Course B 12 runners

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2024-07-10 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. FLAMINGO TRILLION, ridden by K C Leung and trained by F C Lor, won by NOSE, with ROMANTIC LAOS second and HAMERON third. The winner led throughout. The 3.6 favourite SUPREME AGILITY finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.48.88
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 FLAMINGO TRILLION Wire to wire 1.48.88 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · F C Lor 9 11.0 NOSE
2 7 ROMANTIC LAOS Closed strongly TT H Bowman · W K Mo 7 6.4 NOSE
3 2 HAMERON Closed strongly TT L Ferraris · K W Lui 2 7.6 3/4
4 1 AWESOME FLUKE P/TT A Atzeni · P F Yiu 3 6.1 1-1/2
5 3 SUPREME AGILITY Closed strongly Z Purton · P C Ng 5 3.6 1-1/2
6 6 PERFECT TEAM Closed strongly H/P/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 1 15.0 1-3/4
7 8 SAMARKAND Closed strongly CP/TT C L Chau · D A Hayes 6 9.0 2-3/4
8 12 G LINER H/P/XB/TT H Bentley · J Richards 4 22.0 4-3/4
9 11 ESCAPE ROUTE H M F Poon · J Size 11 29.0 5-1/4
10 10 ROMANTIC CHARM V/TT K Teetan · C S Shum 10 13.0 6
11 9 IVY LEAGUE SR/XB/TT K De Melo · D J Whyte 12 23.0 7-1/4
12 4 RISING FROM ASHES B/TT A Hamelin · C W Chang 8 35.0 63-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FLAMINGO TRILLION2. ROMANTIC LAOS+0.05L3. HAMERON+0.75L4. AWESOME FLUKE+1.5L5. SUPREME AGILITY+1.5L6. PERFECT TEAM+1.75L7. SAMARKAND+2.75L8. G LINER+4.75L9. ESCAPE ROUTE+5.25L10. ROMANTIC CHARM+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick PERFECT TEAM (23.1%) finished 6th — the winner FLAMINGO TRILLION was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 PERFECT TEAM 23.1% 4.33 6
2 1 AWESOME FLUKE 14.2% 7.04 4
3 3 SUPREME AGILITY 12.4% 8.05 5
4 8 SAMARKAND 8.2% 12.13 7
5 5 FLAMINGO TRILLION 8.1% 12.39 1
6 10 ROMANTIC CHARM 7.6% 13.24 10
7 7 ROMANTIC LAOS 7.3% 13.67 2
8 12 G LINER 6.8% 14.78 8
9 2 HAMERON 5.8% 17.10 3
10 9 IVY LEAGUE 3.0% 32.90 11
11 11 ESCAPE ROUTE 1.8% 55.43 9
12 4 RISING FROM ASHES 1.6% 61.01 12
PERFECT TEAMAWESOME FLUKESUPREME AGILITYSAMARKANDFLAMINGO TRILLION — wonROMANTIC CHARMROMANTIC LAOSG LINERHAMERONIVY LEAGUEESCAPE ROUTERISING FROM ASHES

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 117.5

PLACE

2 24

5 33

7 23.5

QUINELLA

5,7 338

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 159.5

2,7 96.5

5,7 117.5

FORECAST

5,7 632

TIERCE

5,7,2 4,114

TRIO

2,5,7 649

FIRST 4

1,2,5,7 612

QUARTET

5,7,2,1 15,212

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

3/5/5 10,354

3/5/7 1,249

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

3,5,7/2,5,7 13,984

8TH DOUBLE

5/5 2,242.5

5/7 254.5

SIX UP

5,12/2,9/6,9/3,11/5,7/5,7 8,492

12/9/9/3/5/5 1,526,662

5 [M Chadwick]

5 [D J Whyte]