Happy Valley · 2024-09-11
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2024-09-11 was Class 4 over 1200m. SCOTCH TYCOON, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by M Newnham, won by 2-1/4, with GLORY B second and COSMO NAVIGATOR third. Victory came as the 3.6 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | SCOTCH TYCOON B/TT 1.10.68 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 1 | 3.6 | 2-1/4 |
| 2 | 6 | GLORY B CP/H M Chadwick · D J Whyte | M Chadwick | D J Whyte | 4 | 14.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 3 | 8 | COSMO NAVIGATOR B/TT- M F Poon · C W Chang | M F Poon | C W Chang | 3 | 4.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 4 | 5 | SIGHT HAPPY H Bowman · D A Hayes | H Bowman | D A Hayes | 2 | 3.9 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 4 | SIXTH GENERATION V1/TT C Y Ho · J Richards | C Y Ho | J Richards | 8 | 8.9 | 4 |
| 6 | 2 | JOY COMING B/TT L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 5 | 6.6 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 7 | YODA'S CHOICE PC-/CP2/TT K C Leung · P C Ng | K C Leung | P C Ng | 7 | 18.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 8 | 1 | LIGHTNING BOLT TT K H Chan · C S Shum | K H Chan | C S Shum | 6 | 19.0 | 6-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | SCOTCH TYCOON | 22.8% | 4.38 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | SIGHT HAPPY | 21.3% | 4.71 | 4 |
| 3 | 8 | COSMO NAVIGATOR | 13.7% | 7.31 | 3 |
| 4 | 2 | JOY COMING | 12.4% | 8.04 | 6 |
| 5 | 4 | SIXTH GENERATION | 12.0% | 8.36 | 5 |
| 6 | 6 | GLORY B | 7.0% | 14.20 | 2 |
| 7 | 7 | YODA'S CHOICE | 6.8% | 14.73 | 7 |
| 8 | 1 | LIGHTNING BOLT | 4.0% | 25.01 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 36.5
PLACE
3 15
6 38
8 13.5
QUINELLA
3,6 299
QUINELLA PLACE
3,6 95.5
3,8 33.5
6,8 100.5
FORECAST
3,6 515
TIERCE
3,6,8 1,878
TRIO
3,6,8 318
FIRST 4
3,5,6,8 283
QUARTET
3,6,8,5 6,330
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
8/3 239
8/6 118.5
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,3,8/3,6,8 2,843