Happy Valley · 2024-09-11
Race 7
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2024-09-11 was Class 3 over 1650m. HELENE WARRIOR, ridden by H Bowman and trained by C S Shum, won by 1/2, with SAMARKAND second and I CAN third. The winner led throughout. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | HELENE WARRIOR Wire to wire XB/TT 1.41.03 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · C S Shum | H Bowman | C S Shum | 5 | 2.4 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 5 | SAMARKAND Closed strongly CP/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 4 | 16.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 11 | I CAN Closed strongly H/TT A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 10 | 10.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 10 | SETANTA Closed strongly B/TT L Hewitson · M Newnham | L Hewitson | M Newnham | 8 | 5.6 | 2 |
| 5 | 6 | IVY LEAGUE Closed strongly SR/XB/TT M Chadwick · D J Whyte | M Chadwick | D J Whyte | 11 | 43.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 7 | COMET SPLENDIDO TT K H Chan · C S Shum | K H Chan | C S Shum | 7 | 20.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 1 | HAMERON XB1/TT- L Ferraris · K W Lui | L Ferraris | K W Lui | 2 | 9.7 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 9 | GLORIOUS JOURNEY Closed strongly TT M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 6 | 20.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 8 | GALVANIC TT E C W Wong · C Fownes | E C W Wong | C Fownes | 3 | 12.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 2 | ROMANTIC LAOS TT K C Leung · W K Mo | K C Leung | W K Mo | 9 | 13.0 | 7 |
| 11 | 3 | LOVERO TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 1 | 11.0 | 21-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | HELENE WARRIOR | 17.4% | 5.75 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | HAMERON | 15.5% | 6.47 | 7 |
| 3 | 7 | COMET SPLENDIDO | 10.7% | 9.36 | 6 |
| 4 | 11 | I CAN | 10.4% | 9.63 | 3 |
| 5 | 5 | SAMARKAND | 10.2% | 9.80 | 2 |
| 6 | 10 | SETANTA | 9.4% | 10.61 | 4 |
| 7 | 2 | ROMANTIC LAOS | 6.6% | 15.23 | 10 |
| 8 | 8 | GALVANIC | 6.1% | 16.52 | 9 |
| 9 | 6 | IVY LEAGUE | 4.9% | 20.59 | 5 |
| 10 | 9 | GLORIOUS JOURNEY | 4.5% | 22.05 | 8 |
| 11 | 3 | LOVERO | 4.4% | 22.60 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 24
PLACE
4 13
5 32
11 29.5
QUINELLA
4,5 173.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 66
4,11 53
5,11 191.5
FORECAST
4,5 272
TIERCE
4,5,11 2,124
TRIO
4,5,11 531
FIRST 4
4,5,10,11 632
QUARTET
4,5,11,10 11,477
All pools (1 more)
6TH DOUBLE
11/4 163
11/5 216.5