Happy Valley · 2024-09-11
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2024-09-11 was Class 4 over 1200m. PACKING POWER, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C S Shum, won by 2-1/2, with FAIRY HORSE second and AURORA LADY third. Victory came as the 1.3 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | PACKING POWER TT 1.10.40 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 5 | 1.3 | 2-1/2 |
| 2 | 8 | FAIRY HORSE TT M L Yeung · C Fownes | M L Yeung | C Fownes | 3 | 35.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 3 | 4 | AURORA LADY CP/TT1 C Y Ho · P C Ng | C Y Ho | P C Ng | 4 | 4.9 | 3-1/2 |
| 4 | 2 | FLYING WROTE H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 6 | 15.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 5 | 3 | HAPPY TRIO B K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 8 | 30.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 6 | 7 | COLONEL V-/B2 B Thompson · M Newnham | B Thompson | M Newnham | 7 | 22.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 7 | 6 | RAGNARR XB H Bentley · D J Hall | H Bentley | D J Hall | 2 | 17.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 8 | 5 | TO INFINITY B/TT B Avdulla · J Richards | B Avdulla | J Richards | 1 | 55.0 | 7-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | PACKING POWER | 38.5% | 2.60 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | AURORA LADY | 21.3% | 4.69 | 3 |
| 3 | 6 | RAGNARR | 10.9% | 9.20 | 7 |
| 4 | 2 | FLYING WROTE | 10.2% | 9.76 | 4 |
| 5 | 5 | TO INFINITY | 7.3% | 13.70 | 8 |
| 6 | 8 | FAIRY HORSE | 6.0% | 16.55 | 2 |
| 7 | 3 | HAPPY TRIO | 3.3% | 30.49 | 5 |
| 8 | 7 | COLONEL | 2.5% | 40.75 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 13
PLACE
1 10.5
4 11
8 42.5
QUINELLA
1,8 142
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 13.5
1,8 46
4,8 77
FORECAST
1,8 184
TIERCE
1,8,4 501
TRIO
1,4,8 101
FIRST 4
1,2,4,8 120
QUARTET
1,8,4,2 1,908
All pools (1 more)
2ND DOUBLE
3/1 47.5
3/8 184.5