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Happy Valley · 2024-09-11

Race 5

Class 4 1000m Course A 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2024-09-11 was Class 4 over 1000m. SERGEANT PEPPER, ridden by E C W Wong and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 3/4, with YEE CHEONG SPIRIT second and MA COMET third. The 4.3 favourite FORTUNE WARRIOR finished 9th.

Result

Official · 0.57.88
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 SERGEANT PEPPER 0.57.88 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) E C W Wong · Y S Tsui 6 9.4 3/4
2 6 YEE CHEONG SPIRIT H1/XB1/TT K H Chan · C S Shum 5 24.0 3/4
3 1 MA COMET CP1/TT K Teetan · J Richards 10 5.3 3/4
4 9 CIRCUIT SEVEN B/TT M F Poon · W K Mo 8 7.0 1-1/4
5 8 MR VALIANT CP1 B Avdulla · D J Hall 9 11.0 1-1/2
6 5 LESS IS MORE TT A Atzeni · F C Lor 4 9.2 2-1/2
7 7 SWEET DIAMOND TT A Badel · P F Yiu 1 7.5 2-1/2
8 12 HAPPY HORSE H/P/TT Y L Chung · K L Man 2 14.0 3
9 4 FORTUNE WARRIOR Z Purton · P C Ng 12 4.3 3-1/2
10 2 ACE POWER CP-/B1/TT1 M Chadwick · D J Whyte 7 33.0 3-3/4
11 11 SUPER SIXTY TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 11 19.0 5
12 10 FUNG B/TT L Hewitson · C W Chang 3 52.0 8-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SERGEANT PEPPER2. YEE CHEONG SPIRIT+0.75L3. MA COMET+0.75L4. CIRCUIT SEVEN+1.25L5. MR VALIANT+1.5L6. LESS IS MORE+2.5L7. SWEET DIAMOND+2.5L8. HAPPY HORSE+3L9. FORTUNE WARRIOR+3.5L10. ACE POWER+3.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick SWEET DIAMOND (18.4%) finished 7th — the winner SERGEANT PEPPER was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 SWEET DIAMOND 18.4% 5.44 7
2 4 FORTUNE WARRIOR 15.7% 6.37 9
3 1 MA COMET 13.4% 7.44 3
4 5 LESS IS MORE 11.2% 8.95 6
5 3 SERGEANT PEPPER 8.5% 11.72 1
6 8 MR VALIANT 6.2% 16.10 5
7 11 SUPER SIXTY 6.0% 16.74 11
8 2 ACE POWER 5.2% 19.15 10
9 12 HAPPY HORSE 5.2% 19.21 8
10 9 CIRCUIT SEVEN 4.9% 20.48 4
11 6 YEE CHEONG SPIRIT 4.5% 22.39 2
12 10 FUNG 0.8% 125.13 12
SWEET DIAMONDFORTUNE WARRIORMA COMETLESS IS MORESERGEANT PEPPER — wonMR VALIANTSUPER SIXTYACE POWERHAPPY HORSECIRCUIT SEVENYEE CHEONG SPIRITFUNG

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 94

PLACE

1 20.5

3 28

6 62.5

QUINELLA

3,6 1,045.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 98

1,6 284

3,6 327

FORECAST

3,6 1,930

TIERCE

3,6,1 11,747

TRIO

1,3,6 2,335

FIRST 4

1,3,6,9 3,101

QUARTET

3,6,1,9 88,133

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

1/2/3 769

1/2/6 645

4TH DOUBLE

2/3 431

2/6 337