Happy Valley · 2024-09-11
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2024-09-11 was Class 5 over 1650m. NINJA DERBY, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1/2, with YEABOI second and PRECISION GOAL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.0 favourite PRECISION GOAL finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | NINJA DERBY Closed strongly H/TT 1.42.03 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 4 | 5.7 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 10 | YEABOI Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 8 | 18.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 7 | PRECISION GOAL Led early TT Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 7 | 4.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 4 | RUNNING AHEAD Closed strongly C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 10 | 19.0 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 3 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE Closed strongly XB A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 1 | 5.3 | 1 |
| 6 | 5 | RELIABLE PROFIT B/TT H Bowman · C S Shum | H Bowman | C S Shum | 5 | 5.3 | 1-1/4 |
| 7 | 8 | RIGHT HONOURABLE Closed strongly B/XB B Thompson · M Newnham | B Thompson | M Newnham | 2 | 9.5 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 6 | GOLDEN FAIRY K De Melo · W Y So | K De Melo | W Y So | 3 | 19.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 9 | 1 | KYRUS UNICORN B A Atzeni · D J Hall | A Atzeni | D J Hall | 9 | 13.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 10 | 9 | KEEN UNITY V/TT H Bentley · K H Ting | H Bentley | K H Ting | 6 | 12.0 | 4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | PRECISION GOAL | 18.8% | 5.32 | 3 |
| 2 | 2 | NINJA DERBY | 16.7% | 5.99 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE | 15.6% | 6.40 | 5 |
| 4 | 5 | RELIABLE PROFIT | 11.7% | 8.52 | 6 |
| 5 | 6 | GOLDEN FAIRY | 10.7% | 9.37 | 8 |
| 6 | 9 | KEEN UNITY | 7.3% | 13.76 | 10 |
| 7 | 10 | YEABOI | 6.7% | 15.02 | 2 |
| 8 | 1 | KYRUS UNICORN | 5.6% | 17.72 | 9 |
| 9 | 8 | RIGHT HONOURABLE | 3.7% | 27.13 | 7 |
| 10 | 4 | RUNNING AHEAD | 3.2% | 30.87 | 4 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 57.5
PLACE
2 17.5
7 17.5
10 48.5
QUINELLA
2,10 556.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,7 40.5
2,10 168.5
7,10 118
FORECAST
2,10 912
TIERCE
2,10,7 3,090
TRIO
2,7,10 429
FIRST 4
2,4,7,10 1,548
QUARTET
2,10,7,4 38,478
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,4,8/2,7,10 7,098
3RD DOUBLE
1/2 63.5
1/10 38