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Happy Valley · 2024-09-25

Race 1

Class 5 1800m Course C 10 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2024-09-25 was Class 5 over 1800m. ARTHUR'S KINGDOM, ridden by K Teetan and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 1-3/4, with FRUITY WARRIOR second and RIGHT HONOURABLE third. The winner led throughout. The 2.6 favourite JOYFUL PROSPERITY finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.49.54
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 ARTHUR'S KINGDOM Wire to wire 1.49.54 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · Y S Tsui 8 8.9 1-3/4
2 4 FRUITY WARRIOR Closed strongly TT B Avdulla · C Fownes 1 4.4 1-3/4
3 10 RIGHT HONOURABLE Closed strongly B/XB M Chadwick · M Newnham 4 14.0 3-1/4
4 1 JOYFUL PROSPERITY Closed strongly TT H Bowman · C S Shum 3 2.6 3-3/4
5 2 KYRUS UNICORN Closed strongly B A Atzeni · D J Hall 5 18.0 4
6 7 SUNNY BABY Z Purton · D A Hayes 2 4.7 4-1/4
7 6 KINGLY DEMEANOR TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 9 28.0 5-3/4
8 9 SPLENDID STAR Closed strongly M L Yeung · D J Whyte 10 41.0 6-1/2
9 8 GOLDEN FAIRY A Badel · W Y So 6 23.0 7-1/2
10 5 TURTLE AGAIN B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 7 16.0 10

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ARTHUR'S KINGDOM2. FRUITY WARRIOR+1.75L3. RIGHT HONOURABLE+3.25L4. JOYFUL PROSPERITY+3.75L5. KYRUS UNICORN+4L6. SUNNY BABY+4.25L7. KINGLY DEMEANOR+5.75L8. SPLENDID STAR+6.5L9. GOLDEN FAIRY+7.5L10. TURTLE AGAIN+10L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick SUNNY BABY (33.4%) finished 6th — the winner ARTHUR'S KINGDOM was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 SUNNY BABY 33.4% 3.00 6
2 3 ARTHUR'S KINGDOM 17.6% 5.67 1
3 1 JOYFUL PROSPERITY 16.5% 6.08 4
4 8 GOLDEN FAIRY 6.3% 15.85 9
5 5 TURTLE AGAIN 6.1% 16.33 10
6 4 FRUITY WARRIOR 5.7% 17.70 2
7 2 KYRUS UNICORN 4.6% 21.96 5
8 6 KINGLY DEMEANOR 4.4% 22.88 7
9 10 RIGHT HONOURABLE 3.9% 25.45 3
10 9 SPLENDID STAR 1.6% 62.37 8
SUNNY BABYARTHUR'S KINGDOM — wonJOYFUL PROSPERITYGOLDEN FAIRYTURTLE AGAINFRUITY WARRIORKYRUS UNICORNKINGLY DEMEANORRIGHT HONOURABLESPLENDID STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 89

PLACE

3 25.5

4 17.5

10 36

QUINELLA

3,4 219.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 66.5

3,10 152

4,10 100.5

FORECAST

3,4 535

TIERCE

3,4,10 4,465

TRIO

3,4,10 1,034

FIRST 4

1,3,4,10 426

QUARTET

3,4,10,1 17,574