Happy Valley · 2024-09-25
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2024-09-25 was Class 4 over 1200m. COLONEL, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by M Newnham, won by 1-1/2, with DENFIELD second and TALENTS SUPREMO third. The 4.0 favourite EMBRACES finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | COLONEL B 1.10.17 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · M Newnham | M Chadwick | M Newnham | 5 | 12.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 3 | DENFIELD TT H Bowman · C S Shum | H Bowman | C S Shum | 10 | 16.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 10 | TALENTS SUPREMO CP-/V1/TT K Teetan · W K Mo | K Teetan | W K Mo | 3 | 6.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 9 | EVER SMART TT1 H Bentley · F C Lor | H Bentley | F C Lor | 7 | 83.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 5 | NEBRASKAN PC A Atzeni · J Size | A Atzeni | J Size | 6 | 9.4 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 11 | FAIRY HORSE TT M L Yeung · C Fownes | M L Yeung | C Fownes | 11 | 19.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 6 | EMBRACES TT C L Chau · J Richards | C L Chau | J Richards | 2 | 4.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 7 | SIGHT HAPPY A Badel · D A Hayes | A Badel | D A Hayes | 1 | 10.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 2 | AEROINVINCIBLE SR/TT Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 12 | 5.1 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 4 | JOY COMING B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 9 | 22.0 | 4 |
| 11 | 1 | MULTISUPER P1/TT2 L Hewitson · P F Yiu | L Hewitson | P F Yiu | 4 | 8.6 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 8 | DOUBLE BINGO H1/SR1/TT1 B Avdulla · Y S Tsui | B Avdulla | Y S Tsui | 8 | 25.0 | 7-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | AEROINVINCIBLE | 19.9% | 5.04 | 9 |
| 2 | 1 | MULTISUPER | 13.0% | 7.68 | 11 |
| 3 | 10 | TALENTS SUPREMO | 12.9% | 7.72 | 2 |
| 4 | 7 | SIGHT HAPPY | 12.3% | 8.13 | 8 |
| 5 | 6 | EMBRACES | 11.2% | 8.95 | 7 |
| 6 | 5 | NEBRASKAN | 6.7% | 14.93 | 5 |
| 7 | 3 | DENFIELD | 6.5% | 15.38 | 2 |
| 8 | 11 | FAIRY HORSE | 4.9% | 20.36 | 6 |
| 9 | 4 | JOY COMING | 4.9% | 20.36 | 10 |
| 10 | 12 | COLONEL | 3.6% | 28.00 | 1 |
| 11 | 9 | EVER SMART | 2.2% | 46.39 | 4 |
| 12 | 8 | DOUBLE BINGO | 2.0% | 51.17 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 123
PLACE
3 44
10 19
12 45.5
QUINELLA
3,12 662
10,12 224
QUINELLA PLACE
3,10 148.5
3,12 343
10,12 129.5
FORECAST
12,3 1,316
12,10 530
TIERCE
12,3,10 4,925
12,10,3 4,659
TRIO
3,10,12 2,299
FIRST 4
3,9,10,12 31,371
QUARTET
12,3,10,9 364,693
12,10,3,9 364,693
All pools (1 more)
2ND DOUBLE
1/3 79.5
1/10 33
1/12 1,439