Happy Valley · 2024-09-25
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2024-09-25 was Class 3 over 1650m. NOBLE PURSUIT, ridden by H Bowman and trained by C Fownes, won by 1-1/4, with I CAN second and CHAIN OF GOLD third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.4 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | NOBLE PURSUIT Closed strongly TT 1.39.55 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 2 | 3.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 12 | I CAN Closed strongly H/TT A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 11 | 5.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 6 | CHAIN OF GOLD Closed strongly CP/H/TT K Teetan · W K Mo | K Teetan | W K Mo | 3 | 5.9 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 11 | RED MAJESTY B/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 6 | 14.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 9 | GLORIOUS JOURNEY Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 7 | 22.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 3 | SAMARKAND CP/TT Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 9 | 7.2 | 3 |
| 7 | 10 | GREENWICH Led early TT M F Poon · P C Ng | M F Poon | P C Ng | 10 | 12.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 7 | SOLAR PARTNER TT C Y Ho · P F Yiu | C Y Ho | P F Yiu | 8 | 26.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 2 | HAMERON XB Y L Chung · K W Lui | Y L Chung | K W Lui | 1 | 17.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 5 | IVY LEAGUE SR/XB/TT C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 4 | 12.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 1 | CALIFORNIA VOCE Closed strongly TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 12 | 33.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 8 | EIGHTEEN PALMS B/TT H Bentley · C S Shum | H Bentley | C S Shum | 5 | 35.0 | 25-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | CHAIN OF GOLD | 23.7% | 4.22 | 3 |
| 2 | 4 | NOBLE PURSUIT | 16.4% | 6.10 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | SAMARKAND | 11.3% | 8.87 | 6 |
| 4 | 2 | HAMERON | 10.8% | 9.28 | 9 |
| 5 | 12 | I CAN | 7.0% | 14.35 | 2 |
| 6 | 7 | SOLAR PARTNER | 6.0% | 16.69 | 8 |
| 7 | 10 | GREENWICH | 5.6% | 17.72 | 7 |
| 8 | 11 | RED MAJESTY | 5.4% | 18.39 | 4 |
| 9 | 1 | CALIFORNIA VOCE | 5.4% | 18.43 | 11 |
| 10 | 5 | IVY LEAGUE | 3.8% | 26.26 | 10 |
| 11 | 9 | GLORIOUS JOURNEY | 2.8% | 35.60 | 5 |
| 12 | 8 | EIGHTEEN PALMS | 1.8% | 55.40 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 34
PLACE
4 15
6 21
12 23
QUINELLA
4,12 116
QUINELLA PLACE
4,6 40
4,12 48
6,12 64.5
FORECAST
4,12 211
TIERCE
4,12,6 981
TRIO
4,6,12 199
FIRST 4
4,6,11,12 433
QUARTET
4,12,6,11 7,358
All pools (2 more)
1ST TREBLE
12/3/4 24,148
12/3/12 3,387
4TH DOUBLE
3/4 744.5
3/12 162