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Happy Valley · 2024-09-25

Race 6

Class 4 1650m Course C 11 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2024-09-25 was Class 4 over 1650m. ROCKET SPADE, ridden by H Bowman and trained by C Fownes, won by 1/2, with SUPER UNICORN second and COURIER MAGIC third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.7 favourite MATSU VICTOR finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.40.01
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 ROCKET SPADE Closed strongly B-/XB2/TT 1.40.01 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · C Fownes 7 9.4 1/2
2 8 SUPER UNICORN Closed strongly TT Z Purton · F C Lor 2 3.9 1/2
3 9 COURIER MAGIC Closed strongly B A Atzeni · J Richards 8 17.0 2
4 11 NINJA DERBY H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 6 16.0 3-1/2
5 3 SURE JOYFUL Closed strongly TT M F Poon · P F Yiu 3 12.0 3-3/4
6 4 MATSU VICTOR B C Y Ho · K W Lui 1 2.7 3-3/4
7 2 DURHAM STAR Closed strongly SR/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte 11 56.0 4
8 7 TRADITION Closed strongly Y L Chung · P C Ng 9 56.0 5-1/2
9 10 GALLANT CROWN Led early B/TT E C W Wong · D A Hayes 4 8.9 6-1/4
10 5 BRAVE WITNESS CP/TT K Teetan · C S Shum 5 8.0 10-3/4
11 6 ON THE LASH B/XB C L Chau · P C Ng 10 93.0 17

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ROCKET SPADE2. SUPER UNICORN+0.5L3. COURIER MAGIC+2L4. NINJA DERBY+3.5L5. SURE JOYFUL+3.75L6. MATSU VICTOR+3.75L7. DURHAM STAR+4L8. TRADITION+5.5L9. GALLANT CROWN+6.25L10. BRAVE WITNESS+10.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick SUPER UNICORN (28.2%) finished 2nd — the winner ROCKET SPADE was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 SUPER UNICORN 28.2% 3.54 2
2 4 MATSU VICTOR 15.3% 6.55 6
3 5 BRAVE WITNESS 13.7% 7.29 10
4 11 NINJA DERBY 9.5% 10.54 4
5 1 ROCKET SPADE 9.2% 10.88 1
6 3 SURE JOYFUL 8.6% 11.60 5
7 10 GALLANT CROWN 5.7% 17.65 9
8 9 COURIER MAGIC 3.8% 26.17 3
9 7 TRADITION 3.2% 31.27 8
10 2 DURHAM STAR 2.1% 46.99 7
11 6 ON THE LASH 0.7% 148.95 11
SUPER UNICORNMATSU VICTORBRAVE WITNESSNINJA DERBYROCKET SPADE — wonSURE JOYFULGALLANT CROWNCOURIER MAGICTRADITIONDURHAM STARON THE LASH

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 94

PLACE

1 32.5

8 15.5

9 41.5

QUINELLA

1,8 258.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,8 81.5

1,9 233

8,9 113.5

FORECAST

1,8 734

TIERCE

1,8,9 10,263

TRIO

1,8,9 1,250

FIRST 4

1,8,9,11 2,823

QUARTET

1,8,9,11 63,940

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

4,6,12/1,8,9 31,305

5TH DOUBLE

4/1 238.5

4/8 29.5

TRIPLE TRIO

3,11>8,9/4,6,12/1,8,9 1,310,295

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

3,11>8,9/4,6,12/Any Combination 1,404