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Happy Valley · 2024-09-25

Race 4

Class 4 1650m Course C 10 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2024-09-25 was Class 4 over 1650m. WINNING STEPS, ridden by K Teetan and trained by P C Ng, won by SH, with PRINCE ALEX second and FOREMOST TEDDY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.8 favourite FOREMOST TEDDY finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.40.29
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 WINNING STEPS Closed strongly H/PC 1.40.29 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · P C Ng 10 11.0 SH
2 11 PRINCE ALEX Closed strongly CP/XB/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 9 14.0 SH
3 8 FOREMOST TEDDY B-/V1/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 1 1.8 HD
4 10 SUPER BABY Led early B/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham 6 18.0 1-1/4
5 5 ATOMIC BEAUTY Closed strongly V/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 8 23.0 1-3/4
6 6 CAN'T GO WONG Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · F C Lor 5 8.4 2-1/4
7 2 SNOWALOT B L Hewitson · D A Hayes 2 7.8 3
8 1 SMART CITY CP/TT K C Leung · P F Yiu 3 27.0 5
9 7 BEAUTIFUL WIN TT C Y Ho · W Y So 4 16.0 5
10 4 TURIN WARRIOR B/XB H Bowman · K L Man 7 14.0 6-1/4
9 GALE SAGA M F Poon · P C Ng

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WINNING STEPS2. PRINCE ALEX+0.1L3. FOREMOST TEDDY+0.2L4. SUPER BABY+1.25L5. ATOMIC BEAUTY+1.75L6. CAN'T GO WONG+2.25L7. SNOWALOT+3L8. SMART CITY+5L9. BEAUTIFUL WIN+5L10. TURIN WARRIOR+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick FOREMOST TEDDY (27.3%) finished 3rd — the winner WINNING STEPS was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 FOREMOST TEDDY 27.3% 3.66 3
2 6 CAN'T GO WONG 20.8% 4.80 6
3 3 WINNING STEPS 10.2% 9.77 1
4 2 SNOWALOT 9.2% 10.93 7
5 10 SUPER BABY 7.0% 14.35 4
6 5 ATOMIC BEAUTY 6.9% 14.57 5
7 4 TURIN WARRIOR 6.7% 14.94 10
8 1 SMART CITY 5.9% 16.81 8
9 11 PRINCE ALEX 3.3% 29.94 2
10 7 BEAUTIFUL WIN 2.7% 37.31 9
FOREMOST TEDDYCAN'T GO WONGWINNING STEPS — wonSNOWALOTSUPER BABYATOMIC BEAUTYTURIN WARRIORSMART CITYPRINCE ALEXBEAUTIFUL WIN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 117

PLACE

3 29

8 11

11 33

QUINELLA

3,11 673

QUINELLA PLACE

3,8 36

3,11 151.5

8,11 53

FORECAST

3,11 1,490

TIERCE

3,11,8 5,016

TRIO

3,8,11 343

FIRST 4

3,8,10,11 1,034

QUARTET

3,11,8,10 41,311

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

3,10,12/3,11>8,9 98,953

3RD DOUBLE

12/3 2,185.5

12/11 640.5