Happy Valley · 2024-09-25
Race 7
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2024-09-25 was Class 4 over 1200m. SPICY GOLD, ridden by A Badel and trained by M Newnham, won by N, with SHINKANSEN second and GLORY CLOUD third. The 4.2 favourite AURORA LADY finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | SPICY GOLD H/TT 1.09.92 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · M Newnham | A Badel | M Newnham | 3 | 4.3 | N |
| 2 | 10 | SHINKANSEN H/SR/TT M Chadwick · D J Whyte | M Chadwick | D J Whyte | 4 | 12.0 | N |
| 3 | 5 | GLORY CLOUD TT H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 8 | 6.7 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 2 | AURORA LADY CP/TT Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 10 | 4.2 | 1 |
| 5 | 6 | NEW POWER H M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 1 | 4.4 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 4 | BEAUTY DESTINY H/P/TT A Atzeni · F C Lor | A Atzeni | F C Lor | 7 | 25.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 9 | IVICTORIAM B/XB/TT A Hamelin · J Richards | A Hamelin | J Richards | 9 | 135.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 8 | MR VALIANT CP B Avdulla · D J Hall | B Avdulla | D J Hall | 2 | 10.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 3 | MY DAY MY WAY CP1 C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 6 | 28.0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1 | PRIME MORTAR V/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 5 | 15.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 11 | 12 | HERO STAR TT M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 11 | 35.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 12 | 11 | STRIVE FOR GLORY P/TT K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 12 | 57.0 | 20 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | NEW POWER | 17.0% | 5.87 | 5 |
| 2 | 7 | SPICY GOLD | 15.1% | 6.63 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | AURORA LADY | 11.5% | 8.73 | 4 |
| 4 | 5 | GLORY CLOUD | 10.5% | 9.56 | 3 |
| 5 | 1 | PRIME MORTAR | 9.6% | 10.46 | 10 |
| 6 | 8 | MR VALIANT | 8.7% | 11.49 | 8 |
| 7 | 10 | SHINKANSEN | 8.4% | 11.86 | 2 |
| 8 | 4 | BEAUTY DESTINY | 7.1% | 14.17 | 6 |
| 9 | 3 | MY DAY MY WAY | 6.7% | 14.91 | 9 |
| 10 | 11 | STRIVE FOR GLORY | 2.7% | 37.35 | 12 |
| 11 | 12 | HERO STAR | 2.1% | 47.17 | 11 |
| 12 | 9 | IVICTORIAM | 0.7% | 141.36 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 43
PLACE
5 25.5
7 16.5
10 31
QUINELLA
7,10 228
QUINELLA PLACE
5,7 74.5
5,10 179
7,10 72.5
FORECAST
7,10 444
TIERCE
7,10,5 3,972
TRIO
5,7,10 727
FIRST 4
2,5,7,10 534
QUARTET
7,10,5,2 13,961
All pools (1 more)
6TH DOUBLE
1/7 649
1/10 203.5