Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2024-10-23 · 11:20

Race 1

Class 5 1800m 11 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2024-10-23 was Class 5 over 1800m. COLOURFUL BARON, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1-1/2, with KEEN UNITY second and JOYFUL CHAMPION third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.3 favourite FRUITY WARRIOR finished 11th.

Result

Official · 1.50.26
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 COLOURFUL BARON Closed strongly B/TT 1.50.26 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · D J Whyte 11 7.1 1-1/2
2 10 KEEN UNITY Closed strongly V-/B2/TT H Bentley · K H Ting 10 11.0 1-1/2
3 11 JOYFUL CHAMPION Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · C W Chang 7 7.2 4-1/4
4 1 GO GO GO Closed strongly PC/TT Z Purton · W Y So 1 4.4 6
5 7 GOLDEN FAIRY A Badel · W Y So 3 26.0 6-3/4
6 5 FURY AND GOLD Closed strongly B-/P1/TT C L Chau · C H Yip 6 15.0 8-3/4
7 6 GO HERO B/TT Y L Chung · Y S Tsui 5 7.6 14
8 2 WINNING TURN Led early B-/PC1/TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu 9 43.0 14-1/4
9 8 SUNNY BABY Closed strongly CP2 B Thompson · D A Hayes 4 33.0 14-3/4
10 3 NICE BIRDIE TT H Bowman · C S Shum 2 10.0 21-1/4
11 4 FRUITY WARRIOR TT B Avdulla · C Fownes 8 4.3 21-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. COLOURFUL BARON2. KEEN UNITY+1.5L3. JOYFUL CHAMPION+4.25L4. GO GO GO+6L5. GOLDEN FAIRY+6.75L6. FURY AND GOLD+8.75L7. GO HERO+14L8. WINNING TURN+14.25L9. SUNNY BABY+14.75L10. NICE BIRDIE+21.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick GO GO GO (44.8%) finished 4th — the winner COLOURFUL BARON was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 GO GO GO 44.8% 2.23 4
2 4 FRUITY WARRIOR 9.3% 10.70 11
3 9 COLOURFUL BARON 7.6% 13.21 1
4 6 GO HERO 7.1% 14.00 7
5 3 NICE BIRDIE 6.5% 15.43 10
6 5 FURY AND GOLD 6.2% 16.12 6
7 8 SUNNY BABY 5.6% 18.01 9
8 11 JOYFUL CHAMPION 4.1% 24.29 3
9 10 KEEN UNITY 3.7% 26.76 2
10 7 GOLDEN FAIRY 3.2% 31.69 5
11 2 WINNING TURN 1.9% 53.32 8
GO GO GOFRUITY WARRIORCOLOURFUL BARON — wonGO HERONICE BIRDIEFURY AND GOLDSUNNY BABYJOYFUL CHAMPIONKEEN UNITYGOLDEN FAIRYWINNING TURN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 71.5

PLACE

9 23.5

10 33.5

11 20

QUINELLA

9,10 450.5

QUINELLA PLACE

9,10 137

9,11 78.5

10,11 117

FORECAST

9,10 803

TIERCE

9,10,11 3,610

TRIO

9,10,11 654

FIRST 4

1,9,10,11 623

QUARTET

9,10,11,1 18,856