Sha Tin · 2024-10-23 · 11:50
Race 2
Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2024-10-23 was Class 5 over 1200m. SMART LEADER, ridden by K De Melo and trained by W Y So, won by 1/2, with RATTAN WORLD second and EXCELLENT DADDY third. The 2.9 favourite PATCH OF WATCH finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | SMART LEADER PC/XB/TT 1.10.26 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K De Melo · W Y So | K De Melo | W Y So | 4 | 43.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 10 | RATTAN WORLD B-/PC2/TT A Hamelin · J Richards | A Hamelin | J Richards | 9 | 23.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 6 | EXCELLENT DADDY CP/TT K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 12 | 42.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 11 | PATCH OF WATCH B/TT E C W Wong · K L Man | E C W Wong | K L Man | 1 | 2.9 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 5 | VULCANUS Y L Chung · Y S Tsui | Y L Chung | Y S Tsui | 7 | 7.5 | 3 |
| 6 | 12 | REGENCY HAPPY STAR B P N Wong · C W Chang | P N Wong | C W Chang | 8 | 6.8 | 4 |
| 7 | 7 | GALLANT GOODY XB Z Purton · P F Yiu | Z Purton | P F Yiu | 3 | 6.1 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 4 | HIGH RISE POWER TT B Avdulla · C H Yip | B Avdulla | C H Yip | 2 | 8.7 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 3 | SUPER CHARIZZARD P-/PC1 H Bowman · M Newnham | H Bowman | M Newnham | 10 | 12.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 1 | FLYING ROMANTIC H M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 5 | 34.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 9 | CALIFORNIA ICON B2/TT H Bentley · A S Cruz | H Bentley | A S Cruz | 11 | 32.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 8 | SUPER JOY B/XB/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 6 | 11.0 | 8 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | PATCH OF WATCH | 20.9% | 4.78 | 4 |
| 2 | 4 | HIGH RISE POWER | 16.7% | 6.00 | 8 |
| 3 | 7 | GALLANT GOODY | 13.3% | 7.50 | 7 |
| 4 | 5 | VULCANUS | 9.6% | 10.45 | 5 |
| 5 | 8 | SUPER JOY | 8.9% | 11.18 | 12 |
| 6 | 3 | SUPER CHARIZZARD | 7.9% | 12.68 | 9 |
| 7 | 12 | REGENCY HAPPY STAR | 7.2% | 13.90 | 6 |
| 8 | 10 | RATTAN WORLD | 3.8% | 26.49 | 2 |
| 9 | 1 | FLYING ROMANTIC | 3.7% | 27.14 | 10 |
| 10 | 2 | SMART LEADER | 3.4% | 29.71 | 1 |
| 11 | 9 | CALIFORNIA ICON | 3.4% | 29.71 | 11 |
| 12 | 6 | EXCELLENT DADDY | 1.3% | 76.14 | 3 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 433.5
PLACE
2 93
6 102
10 59
QUINELLA
2,10 3,866
QUINELLA PLACE
2,6 1,605.5
2,10 1,090
6,10 1,094
FORECAST
2,10 5,473
TIERCE
2,10,6 115,329
TRIO
2,6,10 20,347
FIRST 4
2,6,10,11 29,815
QUARTET
2,10,6,11 1,942,246
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
9/2 2,380
9/10 325
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
9,10,11/2,6,10 1,307,896