Sha Tin · 2024-10-23 · 20:46
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | RELIABLE PROFIT Closed strongly P/TT 1.39.36 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 1 | 2.4 | 2-3/4 |
| 2 | 5 | EXCEL WONGCHOY Closed strongly H/TT C Y Ho · P C Ng | C Y Ho | P C Ng | 4 | 7.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 3 | 2 | FOREVER FOLKS Closed strongly B B Thompson · C W Chang | B Thompson | C W Chang | 8 | 7.4 | 3-1/4 |
| 4 | 9 | RUN RUN COOL Led early PC L Hewitson · F C Lor | L Hewitson | F C Lor | 3 | 27.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 5 | 7 | ON THE LASH B/XB/TT1 K C Leung · P C Ng | K C Leung | P C Ng | 9 | 80.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 6 | 1 | GALVANIC TT H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 2 | 3.2 | 8 |
| 7 | 4 | SNOWALOT Closed strongly B Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 6 | 17.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 8 | 8 | HAPPYDEARHAPPYDEER Closed strongly B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 7 | 22.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 9 | 6 | AMAZING AWARD Closed strongly B-/CP1/TT C L Chau · D Eustace | C L Chau | D Eustace | 11 | 39.0 | 15-3/4 |
| 10 | 10 | PALACE PAL V A Atzeni · D J Hall | A Atzeni | D J Hall | 10 | 38.0 | 16 |
| 11 | 3 | ORIENTAL TYCOON M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 5 | 62.0 | 22-3/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2024-10-23 was Class 4 over 1650m. RELIABLE PROFIT, ridden by M F Poon and trained by C S Shum, won by 2-3/4, with EXCEL WONGCHOY second and FOREVER FOLKS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | RELIABLE PROFIT | 20.0% | 4.99 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | SNOWALOT | 19.4% | 5.16 | 7 |
| 3 | 1 | GALVANIC | 17.4% | 5.75 | 6 |
| 4 | 2 | FOREVER FOLKS | 15.5% | 6.46 | 3 |
| 5 | 5 | EXCEL WONGCHOY | 13.7% | 7.31 | 2 |
| 6 | 9 | RUN RUN COOL | 3.7% | 26.77 | 4 |
| 7 | 8 | HAPPYDEARHAPPYDEER | 3.5% | 28.94 | 8 |
| 8 | 10 | PALACE PAL | 3.3% | 30.31 | 10 |
| 9 | 6 | AMAZING AWARD | 2.2% | 45.10 | 9 |
| 10 | 3 | ORIENTAL TYCOON | 0.8% | 130.88 | 11 |
| 11 | 7 | ON THE LASH | 0.6% | 179.86 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 24.5
PLACE
2 18
5 20.5
11 11.5
QUINELLA
5,11 75.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 60
2,11 34.5
5,11 29.5
FORECAST
11,5 133
TIERCE
11,5,2 585
TRIO
2,5,11 155
FIRST 4
2,5,9,11 636
QUARTET
11,5,2,9 8,072
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
6,7,10/2,5,11 8,635
3RD DOUBLE
10/5 349.5
10/11 1,275