Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2024-10-23 · 12:20

Race 3

Class 4 1650m 11 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2024-10-23 was Class 4 over 1650m. NEVER PETER OUT, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by F C Lor, won by 1/2, with LUCKY BANNER second and HAKKA RADIANCE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.4 favourite HAKKA RADIANCE finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.40.21
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 NEVER PETER OUT Closed strongly CP/TT 1.40.21 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · F C Lor 7 15.0 1/2
2 7 LUCKY BANNER Led early H-/TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 8 5.2 1/2
3 6 HAKKA RADIANCE Closed strongly CP/TT K C Leung · C S Shum 6 3.4 2
4 5 ATOMIC BEAUTY V/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 9 8.2 3-3/4
5 3 ONLY U Closed strongly B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 3 8.7 6-3/4
6 8 MILES AWAY CP M Chadwick · P C Ng 10 18.0 7-1/4
7 9 SMART BEAUTY Closed strongly B/H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 4 35.0 8
8 2 FLOOF Closed strongly TT H Bowman · P F Yiu 2 5.7 12
9 4 VIVA HUNTER TT M F Poon · K L Man 11 14.0 13-1/4
10 11 PERFECT PEACH B-/P2/TT L Hewitson · C W Chang 5 12.0 17-1/2
11 1 GOR MO TUEN TT B Thompson · D A Hayes 1 43.0 21-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. NEVER PETER OUT2. LUCKY BANNER+0.5L3. HAKKA RADIANCE+2L4. ATOMIC BEAUTY+3.75L5. ONLY U+6.75L6. MILES AWAY+7.25L7. SMART BEAUTY+8L8. FLOOF+12L9. VIVA HUNTER+13.25L10. PERFECT PEACH+17.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick LUCKY BANNER (27.0%) finished 2nd — the winner NEVER PETER OUT was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 LUCKY BANNER 27.0% 3.71 2
2 2 FLOOF 21.5% 4.65 8
3 6 HAKKA RADIANCE 15.0% 6.65 3
4 11 PERFECT PEACH 7.1% 14.01 10
5 3 ONLY U 7.1% 14.12 5
6 4 VIVA HUNTER 5.8% 17.14 9
7 9 SMART BEAUTY 5.5% 18.14 7
8 5 ATOMIC BEAUTY 4.8% 21.05 4
9 10 NEVER PETER OUT 3.9% 25.56 1
10 8 MILES AWAY 1.4% 72.76 6
11 1 GOR MO TUEN 0.9% 110.48 11
LUCKY BANNERFLOOFHAKKA RADIANCEPERFECT PEACHONLY UVIVA HUNTERSMART BEAUTYATOMIC BEAUTYNEVER PETER OUT — wonMILES AWAYGOR MO TUEN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 159.5

PLACE

6 15.5

7 18

10 51

QUINELLA

7,10 449

QUINELLA PLACE

6,7 39

6,10 122.5

7,10 153

FORECAST

10,7 1,053

TIERCE

10,7,6 4,650

TRIO

6,7,10 667

FIRST 4

5,6,7,10 1,097

QUARTET

10,7,6,5 36,468

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

2/7 308

2/10 6,746.5