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Sha Tin · 2024-10-23 · 22:24

Race 7

Class 3 1650m 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.39.80
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 TURIN MASCOT Closed strongly PC/TT 1.39.80 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P C Ng 6 7.3 1-1/2
2 7 FIGHTING MACHINE Closed strongly B/SR A Badel · P C Ng 11 18.0 1-1/2
3 3 SUPREME AGILITY Closed strongly B/SR/TT M F Poon · P C Ng 9 29.0 1-3/4
4 4 PERFECT TEAM Led early H-/P/TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 4 10.0 1-3/4
5 5 TALENTS AMBITION Closed strongly B/XB H Bentley · M Newnham 3 1.6 2
6 1 APACHE PASS Closed strongly CP-/B2/TT A Atzeni · D Eustace 7 20.0 5-1/4
7 8 YOUNG BRILLIANT B C L Chau · C H Yip 5 20.0 6
8 12 SUPER LOVE DRAGON Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · W Y So 12 12.0 6-1/2
9 6 TOY SOLTERO SR/XB L Hewitson · C W Chang 2 69.0 11-1/2
10 11 SATIRICAL FAN CP/TT P N Wong · C S Shum 8 38.0 11-3/4
11 9 GOOD LUCK BABE XB1/TT1 M Chadwick · D Eustace 10 92.0 12-1/2
12 10 MASSIVE ACTION SR/V Y L Chung · F C Lor 1 30.0 17-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2024-10-23 was Class 3 over 1650m. TURIN MASCOT, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P C Ng, won by 1-1/2, with FIGHTING MACHINE second and SUPREME AGILITY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.6 favourite TALENTS AMBITION finished 5th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TURIN MASCOT—2. FIGHTING MACHINE+1.5L3. SUPREME AGILITY+1.75L4. PERFECT TEAM+1.75L5. TALENTS AMBITION+2L6. APACHE PASS+5.25L7. YOUNG BRILLIANT+6L8. SUPER LOVE DRAGON+6.5L9. TOY SOLTERO+11.5L10. SATIRICAL FAN+11.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick TALENTS AMBITION (30.0%) finished 5th — the winner TURIN MASCOT was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 TALENTS AMBITION 30.0% 3.33 5
2 2 TURIN MASCOT 21.1% 4.75 1
3 4 PERFECT TEAM 10.1% 9.91 4
4 7 FIGHTING MACHINE 7.6% 13.23 2
5 3 SUPREME AGILITY 7.0% 14.20 3
6 12 SUPER LOVE DRAGON 5.9% 16.93 8
7 8 YOUNG BRILLIANT 5.7% 17.53 7
8 1 APACHE PASS 4.9% 20.46 6
9 9 GOOD LUCK BABE 3.0% 33.77 11
10 10 MASSIVE ACTION 1.8% 54.55 12
11 11 SATIRICAL FAN 1.7% 58.73 10
12 6 TOY SOLTERO 1.2% 80.73 9
TALENTS AMBITIONTURIN MASCOT — wonPERFECT TEAMFIGHTING MACHINESUPREME AGILITYSUPER LOVE DRAGONYOUNG BRILLIANTAPACHE PASSGOOD LUCK BABEMASSIVE ACTIONSATIRICAL FANTOY SOLTERO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 73.5

PLACE

2 17

3 54

7 36.5

QUINELLA

2,7 408

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 152

2,7 112

3,7 318

FORECAST

2,7 871

TIERCE

2,7,3 5,243

TRIO

2,3,7 1,323

FIRST 4

2,3,4,7 2,332

QUARTET

2,7,3,4 48,236

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

9/2 481.5

9/7 245.5