Happy Valley · 2024-11-06
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2024-11-06 was Class 5 over 1200m. SPEEDSTAR, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D J Hall, won by SH, with VULCANUS second and COSMO NAVIGATOR third. The 4.8 favourite COSMO NAVIGATOR finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | SPEEDSTAR B 1.09.90 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D J Hall | K Teetan | D J Hall | 6 | 7.1 | SH |
| 2 | 9 | VULCANUS C Y Ho · Y S Tsui | C Y Ho | Y S Tsui | 8 | 34.0 | SH |
| 3 | 2 | COSMO NAVIGATOR B Y L Chung · C W Chang | Y L Chung | C W Chang | 4 | 4.8 | N |
| 4 | 1 | FAIRY HORSE B1/TT H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 5 | 5.6 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 4 | URBAN TRIUMPH V/TT K C Leung · W K Mo | K C Leung | W K Mo | 3 | 14.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 7 | TATTENHAM H A Badel · P C Ng | A Badel | P C Ng | 2 | 5.8 | 1-1/2 |
| 7 | 12 | SUNNY SHINES B/TT M F Poon · D Eustace | M F Poon | D Eustace | 7 | 21.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 8 | 5 | GOOD VIEW GLORY B B Avdulla · C H Yip | B Avdulla | C H Yip | 10 | 69.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 9 | 8 | FALCON COURT CP-/B1/TT A Atzeni · D A Hayes | A Atzeni | D A Hayes | 11 | 37.0 | 3 |
| 10 | 3 | COUNTRY DANCER PC Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 9 | 5.3 | 3-1/2 |
| 11 | 10 | RATTAN WORLD PC/TT A Hamelin · J Richards | A Hamelin | J Richards | 1 | 11.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 6 | HERO STAR TT L Ferraris · K L Man | L Ferraris | K L Man | 12 | 19.0 | 6-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | SPEEDSTAR | 17.3% | 5.77 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | FAIRY HORSE | 12.4% | 8.09 | 4 |
| 3 | 10 | RATTAN WORLD | 11.7% | 8.51 | 11 |
| 4 | 3 | COUNTRY DANCER | 11.0% | 9.09 | 10 |
| 5 | 2 | COSMO NAVIGATOR | 9.4% | 10.65 | 3 |
| 6 | 4 | URBAN TRIUMPH | 8.1% | 12.34 | 5 |
| 7 | 5 | GOOD VIEW GLORY | 6.2% | 16.23 | 8 |
| 8 | 7 | TATTENHAM | 5.9% | 16.97 | 6 |
| 9 | 9 | VULCANUS | 5.6% | 17.79 | 2 |
| 10 | 8 | FALCON COURT | 5.3% | 18.71 | 9 |
| 11 | 6 | HERO STAR | 4.8% | 20.81 | 12 |
| 12 | 12 | SUNNY SHINES | 2.2% | 44.52 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 71
PLACE
2 18.5
9 82
11 25
QUINELLA
9,11 1,321.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,9 267
2,11 78.5
9,11 346.5
FORECAST
11,9 2,213
TIERCE
11,9,2 14,786
TRIO
2,9,11 2,037
FIRST 4
1,2,9,11 2,016
QUARTET
11,9,2,1 57,914